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The Technological Singularity презентация
Содержание
- 1. The Technological Singularity
- 2. “We are on the edge
- 3. TOPICS COVERED What is the Singularity? How
- 4. WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?
- 5. CAN TECHNOLOGY REALLY
- 6. EARLY THOUGHTS: ALAN TURING Computer scientist, Alan
- 7. THE TURING TEST In 1950, Alan Turing
- 8. IMPORTANT THINKERS Vinge predicts the Singularity will
- 9. HOW ARE THE DATES PREDICTED? According
- 10. TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION: EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Photo credit:
- 11. APPLYING MOORE’S LAW TO THE SINGULARITY Moore’s
- 12. AN EXAMPLE OF MOORE’S LAW “Complexity of
- 13. PARADIGM SHIFTS IN EVOLUTION Evolution has resulted
- 14. HOW WILL THIS INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION TAKE PLACE?
- 15. PATHS TO THE SINGULARITY - VERNOR VINGE
- 16. HARD VS. SOFT TAKE OFF A hard
- 17. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SINGULARITY?
- 18. WHAT DOES THE SINGULARITY MEAN FOR HUMAN
- 19. 1. HUMANS WILL TRANSCEND THEIR INTELLECT For
- 20. 2. HUMANS BECOME AN AUGMENTED VERSION OF
- 21. 3. HUMANS WILL CONQUER ALL DISEASE Since
- 22. 4. HUMANS WILL ACHIEVE IMMORTALITY Futurists believe
- 23. WHAT WHEN IT HAPPENS: UTOPIA OR
- 24. SCENARIO 1: WHERE HUMANS WILL RULE OVER
- 25. SCENARIO 2: WHERE MACHINES WILL RULE OVER
- 26. SCENARIO 3: HUMANS AND MACHINES LIVE IN
- 27. CRITICISM OF THE SINGULARITY THEORY Timescale –
- 28. BEGINNINGS OF THE SINGULARITY: EXAMPLES @2015, ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015
- 29. GENETICS, NANOTECHNOLOGY AND ROBOTICS Photo credits: Gisela
- 30. SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY Founded in 2008 by Ray
- 31. GREATER TRUST IN TECHNOLOGY Photo credits: BTC
- 32. THE POST-HUMAN ERA IS HERE The extension
- 33. REVERSE ENGINEERING OF THE HUMAN BRAIN HAS
- 34. THE SIX EPOCHS: THE AFTERMATH Kurzweil describes
- 35. Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil @2015, ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015
- 36. QUESTIONS THAT ARISE @2015, ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015
- 37. HUMANITY Will humanity survive the Singularity or
- 38. NATURE In the theory of Singularity, what
- 39. SPIRITUALITY While we approach the technological singularity,
- 40. THANK YOU Photo credit: Oli R https://flic.kr/p/5u4gF
“We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of
Слайд 1THE TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY
November 30, 2015
Photo credit: Oli R https://flic.kr/p/5u4gF
@2015, ICE, ALL
Слайд 2
“We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise
of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence.”
Vernor Vinge (1993)
Vernor Vinge (1993)
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Слайд 3TOPICS COVERED
What is the Singularity?
How is it predicted?
What are its implications?
What
does it mean for human evolution?
What when it happens: Utopia or doom?
Beginnings of the Singularity
Questions that arise
What when it happens: Utopia or doom?
Beginnings of the Singularity
Questions that arise
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Слайд 4WHAT IS THE SINGULARITY?
A future point in time when technology will
rapidly improve itself to surpass human intelligence, changing human life as we know it.
Photo credit: Keoni Cabral https://flic.kr/p/8NwP5i
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Слайд 5
CAN TECHNOLOGY REALLY SURPASS HUMAN INTELLIGENCE?
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NOVEMBER 2015
Слайд 6EARLY THOUGHTS: ALAN TURING
Computer scientist, Alan Turing, predicted as early as
1950 that there would be “thinking machines.”
“I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.”
– Alan Turing
“I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted.”
– Alan Turing
Photo credit: Elliott Brown https://flic.kr/p/8NhuDa
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Слайд 7THE TURING TEST
In 1950, Alan Turing described an Imitation Game where
a machine imitates human behavior in a way that a human has to decide whether they are interacting with a machine or a human being on the other end.
“The object of the machine is to try to cause the interrogator to mistakenly conclude that the machine is the other person.”
“The object of the machine is to try to cause the interrogator to mistakenly conclude that the machine is the other person.”
Source: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing-test/
Photo credit: Steve Jurvetson https://flic.kr/p/5SgVL2
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Слайд 8IMPORTANT THINKERS
Vinge predicts the Singularity will occur around 2030
Kurzweil predicts that
we will experience a Singularity in 2045
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Слайд 9HOW ARE THE DATES PREDICTED?
According to futurist, Ray Kurzwiel, we will
arrive at a Technological Singularity by the year 2045 “a point where progress is so rapid it outstrips humans' ability to comprehend it.”
How do futurists arrive at this date?
How do futurists arrive at this date?
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Слайд 10TECHNOLOGICAL EVOLUTION: EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Photo credit: Raneko https://flic.kr/p/7puJHj
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30 NOVEMBER 2015
Слайд 11APPLYING MOORE’S LAW TO THE SINGULARITY
Moore’s law of exponential growth in
digital integrated circuits has been extended to machines that use themselves to create newer, more intelligent machines.
“Computing speed doubles every two subjective years of work. Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again. Six months - three months - 1.5 months ... Singularity.”
Eliezer Yudkowsky (1996)
“Computing speed doubles every two subjective years of work. Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later, their speed doubles again. Six months - three months - 1.5 months ... Singularity.”
Eliezer Yudkowsky (1996)
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Слайд 12AN EXAMPLE OF MOORE’S LAW
“Complexity of integrated circuits has approximately doubled
every year since their introduction. Cost per function has decreased several thousand-fold, while system performance and reliability have been improved dramatically. …The expected trends can be recombined to see how long exponential growth in complexity can be expected to continue.”
Gordon E. Moore (Progress In Digital Integrated Electronics, 1975)
Gordon E. Moore (Progress In Digital Integrated Electronics, 1975)
Source: "Transistor Count and Moore's Law - 2011" by Wgsimon - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2011.svg#/media/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2011.svg
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Слайд 13PARADIGM SHIFTS IN EVOLUTION
Evolution has resulted in major paradigm shifts for
humanity such as the agricultural revolution, industrial revolution, invention of the personal computer, etc.
Kurzweil predicts exponential growth will continue and in a few decades, the computer will evolve to surpass human intelligence and will appear as superhuman artificial intelligence.
Kurzweil predicts exponential growth will continue and in a few decades, the computer will evolve to surpass human intelligence and will appear as superhuman artificial intelligence.
Chart from the book The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil
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Слайд 14HOW WILL THIS INTELLIGENCE EXPLOSION TAKE PLACE?
Photo credit: Kevin Dooley https://flic.kr/p/cF3MxS
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Слайд 15PATHS TO THE SINGULARITY - VERNOR VINGE (1993)
Artificial intelligence: Computers
that are “awake” and superhumanly will be developed
Intelligence amplification: Human intelligence is amplified through human-computer interfaces
Biomedical enhancers: The human brain is made more intelligent by improving its neurological operation using smart drugs, etc.
Digital networks: A large network of computers as well as their users will “wake up” together to be considered superhumanly
Intelligence amplification: Human intelligence is amplified through human-computer interfaces
Biomedical enhancers: The human brain is made more intelligent by improving its neurological operation using smart drugs, etc.
Digital networks: A large network of computers as well as their users will “wake up” together to be considered superhumanly
Source: https://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/book98/com.ch1/vinge.singularity.html
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Слайд 16HARD VS. SOFT TAKE OFF
A hard takeoff is a scenario where
the artificial intelligence rapidly improves in a short duration, few days or even minutes.
This scenario makes the artificial intelligence pace of acceleration possibly precarious and leads to AI that is potentially “unfriendly” to human beings.
This scenario makes the artificial intelligence pace of acceleration possibly precarious and leads to AI that is potentially “unfriendly” to human beings.
A soft takeoff prediction is that artificial intelligence will gradually improve over a longer term.
In this scenario, a gradual build up of the artificial intelligence, for example, reverse engineering of the human brain, would be completed. We can expect this to be a more human friendly form of AI.
Source: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AI_takeoff
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Слайд 17WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE SINGULARITY?
The intelligence explosion will cause
a major paradigm shift
Human affairs as we know them cannot continue
A fusion of humans and computers will result in users that are “superhumanly”
Humans will not be only biological but also have parts of them that are technological, for example, some parts of the human might be in the cloud
Human affairs as we know them cannot continue
A fusion of humans and computers will result in users that are “superhumanly”
Humans will not be only biological but also have parts of them that are technological, for example, some parts of the human might be in the cloud
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Слайд 18WHAT DOES THE SINGULARITY MEAN FOR HUMAN EVOLUTION?
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Слайд 191. HUMANS WILL TRANSCEND THEIR INTELLECT
For example, in the case of
pattern recognition, the human brain can process a couple of dozen variables, while a machine might be able to recognize millions of variables
Further, human pattern recognition is limited to faces, speech, sounds, etc., but machines are capable of identifying any type of pattern
Further, human pattern recognition is limited to faces, speech, sounds, etc., but machines are capable of identifying any type of pattern
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/serge111/singularity-presentation-ray-kurzweil-at-google
Photo credit: webtreats https://flic.kr/p/7xptiR
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Слайд 202. HUMANS BECOME AN AUGMENTED VERSION OF THEMSELVES
For example, a human
being might be able to augment themselves to break record speeds in running
Photo credit: Steve Johnson https://flic.kr/p/8287EH
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Слайд 213. HUMANS WILL CONQUER ALL DISEASE
Since human beings will be a
combination of nanobots and biological material, it will be possible to intelligently program genes and the human body at the cellular and sub-cellular level so as to reverse and cure any disease
Photo credit: Surian Soosay https://flic.kr/p/7f5ixe
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Слайд 224. HUMANS WILL ACHIEVE IMMORTALITY
Futurists believe that when we reach the
Singularity, we will be able to upload the human mind to a computer. “Minduploading” will ensure that human beings will have a digital version that can live forever. Human beings can then choose to not inhabit their biological bodies at all, and exist in the form of different avatars, such that there is no distinction between reality and virtual reality.
Source: http://www.livescience.com/37499-immortality-by-2045-conference.html
Photo credit: JD Hancock https://flic.kr/p/aJzibk
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Слайд 24SCENARIO 1: WHERE HUMANS WILL RULE OVER MACHINES
In this scenario, technology
will very much be “working for” specialized needs of human society and will be programmed to be friendly with human beings.
However, the machines themselves will have few rights, and will be only subject to work as per human needs.
However, the machines themselves will have few rights, and will be only subject to work as per human needs.
Photo credit: Steve Jurvetson https://flic.kr/p/kQNFcj
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Слайд 25SCENARIO 2: WHERE MACHINES WILL RULE OVER HUMANS
This scenario is very
much like “The Matrix” where the world is ruled by machines and human beings are being used of their purposes.
It takes an extraordinary programmer like “Neo” to understand the machines and find a way out.
It takes an extraordinary programmer like “Neo” to understand the machines and find a way out.
Photo credit: Suvcon https://flic.kr/p/7SDyce
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Слайд 26SCENARIO 3: HUMANS AND MACHINES LIVE IN HARMONY
In this scenario, humans
and artificial intelligence forms will have relationships, even romantic relationships.
The film “Her” shows such a scenario where a man falls in love with his rapidly evolving operating system, Samantha.
The film “Her” shows such a scenario where a man falls in love with his rapidly evolving operating system, Samantha.
Photo credit: Todd Huffman https://flic.kr/p/4eWXYx
Source: http://mashable.com/2014/01/15/her-singularity/
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Слайд 27CRITICISM OF THE SINGULARITY THEORY
Timescale – all technological evolution doesn’t follow
the exponential growth of Moore’s Law.
Artificial intelligence can never be the same as human intelligence or truly understand human nature. 'The truth is that human intelligence can never be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not ourselves "thinking machines" in the sense in which that term is commonly understood.‘ (Dreyfus & Dreyfus 2000)
History of artificial intelligence hasn’t shown as much progress as predicted.
The utopic view of the new world, where hunger, pollution, disease, and so on ends, makes the theory seem naïve in the sense that if AI were very intelligent, it could also likely lead to a quick end of humanity.
Artificial intelligence can never be the same as human intelligence or truly understand human nature. 'The truth is that human intelligence can never be replaced with machine intelligence simply because we are not ourselves "thinking machines" in the sense in which that term is commonly understood.‘ (Dreyfus & Dreyfus 2000)
History of artificial intelligence hasn’t shown as much progress as predicted.
The utopic view of the new world, where hunger, pollution, disease, and so on ends, makes the theory seem naïve in the sense that if AI were very intelligent, it could also likely lead to a quick end of humanity.
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Слайд 29GENETICS, NANOTECHNOLOGY AND ROBOTICS
Photo credits: Gisela Giardino, Mehmet Pinarci, Ricardo Liberato
Source:
http://www.nature.com/news/robotics-ethics-of-artificial-intelligence-1.17611
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Слайд 30SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY
Founded in 2008 by Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis, backed
by NASA and Google, the Singularity University offers innovation programs that will create global social impact. Students at the university are challenged to innovate for the world population and to reshape the future of humanity as a whole.
Photo credit: David Orban https://flic.kr/p/6HjP5g
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Слайд 31GREATER TRUST IN TECHNOLOGY
Photo credits: BTC Keychain, bfishadow, Marco Paköeningrat
Source: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21677198-technology-behind-bitcoin-could-transform-how-economy-works-trust-machine
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ICE, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED, 30 NOVEMBER 2015
Слайд 32THE POST-HUMAN ERA IS HERE
The extension of human senses with a
merger with technology is begun with groups such as the Cyborg Foundation (2010) starting out their research on technology and the human body.
According to founder and cyborg Neil Harbisson, the 2020’s will see more appearance of cyborgs as well as acceptance of them in society. Harbisson also believes that the use of technology currently is still outside the human body, and overtime humans will become more open to exploration of technology inside the body.
According to founder and cyborg Neil Harbisson, the 2020’s will see more appearance of cyborgs as well as acceptance of them in society. Harbisson also believes that the use of technology currently is still outside the human body, and overtime humans will become more open to exploration of technology inside the body.
Source: http://www.seriouswonder.com/a-conversation-on-cyborgism-interview-with-u-k-cyborg-neil-harbisson/
Photo credit: Suvcon https://flic.kr/p/7SDyce
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Слайд 33REVERSE ENGINEERING OF THE HUMAN BRAIN HAS BEGUN
Researchers have already started
to reverse engineer the human brain, parts of which have been completed. The potential to capture all of the workings of the human mind digitally is a project that many futurists are interested in. Apart from understanding the workings of the human mind, there are benefits in detecting and curing diseases like Alzheimers.
Photo credit: Bruno Cordioli https://flic.kr/p/79Mjup
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Слайд 34THE SIX EPOCHS: THE AFTERMATH
Kurzweil describes Six Epochs of the world.
The fifth refers to the merger of humans with technology, while the sixth epoch refers to this fusion pervading all matter, the waking up of the entire universe.
Patterns of matter and energy in the universe become saturated with intelligent processes and knowledge: “In the aftermath of the Singularity, intelligence, derived from its biological origins in human brains and its technological origins in human ingenuity, will begin to saturate the matter and energy in its midst.” (pg 21) The universe itself is now alive.
Patterns of matter and energy in the universe become saturated with intelligent processes and knowledge: “In the aftermath of the Singularity, intelligence, derived from its biological origins in human brains and its technological origins in human ingenuity, will begin to saturate the matter and energy in its midst.” (pg 21) The universe itself is now alive.
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil
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Слайд 35Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil
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Слайд 37HUMANITY
Will humanity survive the Singularity or will it perish? Ray Kurzweil’s
view is often considered too optimistic and utopian. Vinge, on the other hand warns us of impending doom.
"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
- Vernor Vinge, The Coming Singularity (1993)
"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
- Vernor Vinge, The Coming Singularity (1993)
Photo credit: Suvcon https://flic.kr/p/7SDyce
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Слайд 38NATURE
In the theory of Singularity, what role does nature play? One
might argue that the technology creation comes from nature and might be inspired by how nature created it, for example, the DNA sequence. In the scenario where human beings cause their own self-destruction through the rise of artificial intelligence, how do the laws of nature factor in?
Photo credit: Pavel P. https://flic.kr/p/eibt4y
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Слайд 39SPIRITUALITY
While we approach the technological singularity, the merger of human beings
with technology will no doubt provide for new blissful and transcendent experiences. Will the Singularity become humanity’s ultimate spiritual union with the universe?
“Galaxies that were once dense and tightly spiraled are now quite sparse and more relaxed in their rotation. We have ended were we began, in the cosmos.”
“Galaxies that were once dense and tightly spiraled are now quite sparse and more relaxed in their rotation. We have ended were we began, in the cosmos.”
Photo credit: Suvcon https://flic.kr/p/7SDyce
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/six-epochs-of-life-mural-by-nick-mayer-inspired-by-ray-kurzweil
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Слайд 40THANK YOU
Photo credit: Oli R https://flic.kr/p/5u4gF
Authors:
Apala Lahiri Chavan
Kalika Sharma
facebook.com/uxtrendspotting
@UXTrendspotting
Interested
in future trends and reports?
Write in to us at ice@humanfactors.com
Write in to us at ice@humanfactors.com
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