Why this means we no longer know what we’re doing.
And why that might just be ok after all.
10 June 2014
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The Next Web презентация
Содержание
- 1. The Next Web
- 2. What it used to be The Next Web
- 3. What it is now The Next Web
- 4. It’s complicated The Next Web
- 5. Keep it simple, stupid The Next Web
- 6. The Next Web
- 7. “As with all things in life,
- 8. Bugger The Next Web
- 9. Complex systems The Next Web
- 10. Complex systems (the following from “Complexity: A Guided Tour” by Melanie Michell) The Next Web
- 11. Complex systems Complex collective behaviour – the
- 12. Complex systems Complex collective behaviour – the
- 13. Complex systems Complex collective behaviour – the
- 14. Examples The Human brain. Weather and climate.
- 15. Important Point #1 Complex systems cannot be
- 16. Aside #1 – measuring complexity The system
- 17. Example system 1.0 The Next Web
- 18. Example system 1.1 The Next Web
- 19. Example system 1.2 The Next Web
- 20. Example system 1.3 The Next Web
- 21. Example system 1.4 The Next Web
- 22. ARRGGHH Example system 1.5 The Next Web
- 23. Example system 2.0 The Next Web
- 24. Example system 2.1 The Next Web
- 25. It’s adapting, but it’s painful It happens
- 26. It’s adapting, but it’s painful It happens
- 27. Seeking simplicity in the face of complexity
- 28. Important Point #2 New technologies mean our
- 29. Aside #2 – death of RSS was
- 30. Concentric complex systems Not only are our
- 31. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 32. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 33. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 34. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 35. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 36. The Next Web Marketing H.R. I.T. Sales
- 37. ARRGGHH Haven’t we been here before? The Next Web
- 38. An example The Next Web
- 39. Important Point #3 Complex systems exist within
- 40. The Black Swan The Black Swan is
- 41. Dealing with uncertainty Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s approach
- 42. Dealing with uncertainty If you don’t know
- 43. Important point #4 Complex systems are hard
- 44. Benefiting from complexity Complexity brings uncertainty. We
- 45. Why don’t we just accept the truth
- 46. If we know this, we can benefit
- 47. If we know this, we can benefit
- 48. If we know this, we can benefit
- 49. If we know this, we can benefit
- 50. What might we see in the future?
- 51. What might we see in the future?
- 52. What might we see in the future?
- 53. What might we see in the future
- 54. What might we see in the future
- 55. What might we see in the future
- 56. This is happening now The ability to
- 57. Answering “will it go viral” I don’t
- 58. Thanks very much adam.sefton@readingroom.com @adamsefton The Next Web
- 59. One last thing!! One-in-twenty The Next Web
What it used to be The Next Web
Слайд 1The Next Web
How this new network of connected things is a
complex system.
Why this means we no longer know what we’re doing.
And why that might just be ok after all.
Why this means we no longer know what we’re doing.
And why that might just be ok after all.
Слайд 7
“As with all things in life, it’s changed …
So I
guess I now prefer complexity.”
The Next Web
Слайд 10Complex systems
(the following from “Complexity: A Guided Tour” by Melanie Michell)
The
Next Web
Слайд 11Complex systems
Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the
sum of its parts.
The Next Web
Слайд 12Complex systems
Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the
sum of its parts.
Signaling and information processing – these systems both produce and consume signals and information.
Signaling and information processing – these systems both produce and consume signals and information.
The Next Web
Слайд 13Complex systems
Complex collective behaviour – the whole is not just the
sum of its parts.
Signaling and information processing – these systems both produce and consume signals and information.
Adaption – they adapt through learning to get more effective at what they do.
Signaling and information processing – these systems both produce and consume signals and information.
Adaption – they adapt through learning to get more effective at what they do.
The Next Web
Слайд 14Examples
The Human brain.
Weather and climate.
The behaviour of societies.
Communication networks.
Capitalist markets.
The Next
Web
Слайд 15Important Point #1
Complex systems cannot be understood by understanding their constituent
parts.
The Next Web
Слайд 16Aside #1 – measuring complexity
The system is as complex as the
lines of computer code it would take to code that system from start to finish.
The Next Web
Слайд 25It’s adapting, but it’s painful
It happens all the time.
So why do
we expect to get it right next time?
Because we understand more this time?
Because we understand more this time?
The Next Web
Слайд 26It’s adapting, but it’s painful
It happens all the time.
So why do
we expect to get it right next time?
Because we understand more this time?
Remember, complex systems do not get easier to understand the more you understand their constituent parts.
Because we understand more this time?
Remember, complex systems do not get easier to understand the more you understand their constituent parts.
The Next Web
Слайд 27Seeking simplicity in the face of complexity is simply a faster
route to obsolescence.
Accepting complexity
The Next Web
http://responsive.org/2014/05/you-cant-escape-complexity/
Слайд 28Important Point #2
New technologies mean our systems have to adapt. Fighting
that adaption is painful and in all likelihood entirely futile. Stop it.
The Next Web
Слайд 29Aside #2 – death of RSS was Very Bad
It represents the
New Order (Google, Facebook, Apple) tightening their walls around their (your) data.
It represents them locking you (the user) into one ecosystem. Apple do it better than others, but they ALL do it.
But being locked into one platform does not simplify the experience. The system is still complex.
And now you have less choice.
It represents them locking you (the user) into one ecosystem. Apple do it better than others, but they ALL do it.
But being locked into one platform does not simplify the experience. The system is still complex.
And now you have less choice.
The Next Web
Слайд 30Concentric complex systems
Not only are our technological networks complex, but the
organisations in which they sit are likely also complex.
We have to deal with, unfortunately, complex systems within complex systems.
We have to deal with, unfortunately, complex systems within complex systems.
The Next Web
Слайд 31The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 32The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 33The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 34The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 35The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 36The Next Web
Marketing
H.R.
I.T.
Sales
Finance
Marketing
Director
Marketing
Manager
Brand
Manager
Comms
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Digital
Marketing
Manager
Marketing
Executive
Marketing
Executive
Concentric complex systems
Слайд 39Important Point #3
Complex systems exist within other complex systems. The workings
of one interact with the workings of the other.
The Next Web
Слайд 40The Black Swan
The Black Swan is a concept based around the
idea of events that are impossible to predict but that seem obvious in hindsight.
For a variety of reasons, this is true of almost all large events.
Human beings are very bad at accepting randomness. But the truth is that random events impact upon our lives and success far more than we realise.
See also: Outliers; Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow; Any Good Book On Behavioural Economics.
For a variety of reasons, this is true of almost all large events.
Human beings are very bad at accepting randomness. But the truth is that random events impact upon our lives and success far more than we realise.
See also: Outliers; Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow; Any Good Book On Behavioural Economics.
The Next Web
Слайд 41Dealing with uncertainty
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s approach to the stockmarket:
Place a lot
of bets on exceptionally safe low-odd outcomes
Place a few on exceptionally risky high-odd outcomes
Place a few on exceptionally risky high-odd outcomes
The Next Web
Слайд 42Dealing with uncertainty
If you don’t know which 1 thing is going
to happen, do more than 1 thing.
The Next Web
Слайд 43Important point #4
Complex systems are hard to understand.
But human beings
like to feel like they understand.
Post-rationalisation is rampant and covering up the truth.
Post-rationalisation is rampant and covering up the truth.
Слайд 44Benefiting from complexity
Complexity brings uncertainty.
We might understand what happened, but we
don’t yet understand how or why it happened.
Can we use this to our advantage?
Can we use this to our advantage?
The Next Web
Слайд 46If we know this, we can benefit by …
Building extensible systems.
APIs. Standard frameworks and interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow between points more easily.
The Next Web
Слайд 47If we know this, we can benefit by …
Building extensible systems.
APIs. Standard frameworks and interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow between points more easily.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
The Next Web
Слайд 48If we know this, we can benefit by …
Building extensible systems.
APIs. Standard frameworks and interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow between points more easily.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make extensible and adaptable easier.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make extensible and adaptable easier.
The Next Web
Слайд 49If we know this, we can benefit by …
Building extensible systems.
APIs. Standard frameworks and interfaces. Common web services. Things that allow data to flow between points more easily.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make extensible and adaptable easier.
Building more systems. If we cannot know for sure what will work, we should do more than 1 thing.
Building adaptable systems. More advanced notions of AI that helps systems learn and adapt to new environments.
Building open systems. Open, standardised platforms make extensible and adaptable easier.
Building more systems. If we cannot know for sure what will work, we should do more than 1 thing.
The Next Web
Слайд 50What might we see in the future?
Solutions shared across multiple clients,
collaborating to develop better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to develop big data prediction solutions).
The Next Web
Слайд 51What might we see in the future?
Solutions shared across multiple clients,
collaborating to develop better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to develop big data prediction solutions).
Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
The Next Web
Слайд 52What might we see in the future?
Solutions shared across multiple clients,
collaborating to develop better results (e.g., multiple charity clients sharing data to develop big data prediction solutions).
Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
A website that has a genetic algorithm that constantly evolves its IA to maximise conversion.
Rapid prototypes, development of Minimal Viable Products, that are released quickly, learnt from, and redeveloped.
A website that has a genetic algorithm that constantly evolves its IA to maximise conversion.
The Next Web
Слайд 53What might we see in the future now?
US firm DataKind was
set up with the expressed intention of helping charities to find data professionals to help with data analysis across multiple charities.
The Next Web
Слайд 54What might we see in the future now?
Government Digital Services in
the UK have been leading the push, releasing work in an agile fashion, adapting to the chaos caused by complex systems.
The Next Web
Слайд 55What might we see in the future now?
A space antenna, designed
by a genetic algorithm (in 2008). This was a better design than anything designed by human-hand.
The Next Web
Слайд 56This is happening now
The ability to accept you cannot understand frees
you
You can plan and build things differently. More successfully.
And finally …
You can plan and build things differently. More successfully.
And finally …
The Next Web
Слайд 57Answering “will it go viral”
I don’t know if it will go
viral. In fact, I cannot know if it will go viral, as the concept of viral spread is inherently a complex system that is unfortunately not understandable by reviewing and understanding its constituent parts. Therefore despite being able to review the creative idea, despite having an excellent grasp of social media, despite knowing the number of fans and followers your brand has and despite knowing the amount of budget you have to spend on media to kick start it [DEEP BREATH] I am unable to tell you if this piece of work will go viral.
The Next Web
