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Real Estate Trends and Outlook презентация
Содержание
- 2. Mel Watt Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director
- 3. Real Estate Trends and Outlook Lawrence Yun,
- 4. Expectations of Firm Profitability (over the next 12-months)
- 5. Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence
- 6. Zoom-in Consumer and REALTOR® Confidence
- 7. Monthly Pending Sales Index … Making Upward U-Turn (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: NAR
- 8. Existing + New Home Sales
- 9. Homebuilder Confidence (NAHB Market Index)
- 10. Single Family Housing Starts … ½ the Normal Thousand units
- 11. Multifamily Housing Starts … Back to Normal Thousand units
- 12. Nationwide Home Price Recovery (Almost Doubled over 20 years) FHFA Home Price Index
- 13. Home Price Growth from 1995 San Francisco, Miami, Dallas San Francisco Miami Dallas
- 14. Household Net Worth ($5,500 vs. $195,500) x31
- 15. From 2010 to Today Homeowners Recovering Wealth
- 16. Homeowner Households from 2010 (Decreased by 1 million) In thousands
- 17. Renter Households from 2010 (Increased by 4 million) In thousands
- 18. Homeownership Rate
- 19. Homeownership Rate by Age Group
- 20. Harvard Elderly Housing Study One in Five
- 21. Annual Income by Age
- 22. Do Elderly have Mortgage?
- 23. First-time Buyer Share (Less than 30%
- 24. 30-year Mortgage Rates
- 25. Where Are Young People Hiding? 57 million
- 26. Student Loan (in $billion)
- 27. Student Loans and Homeownership
- 28. Desire of Gen Y to Buy a
- 29. Opening the Credit Box FICO New Method
- 30. 10 best cities for millennials
- 31. Millennial Housing Demand Returns Austin Dallas-Ft.
- 32. The Economist – July 19, 2014
- 33. Annual GDP Growth (9 straight years of subpar growth)
- 34. Jobs (8 million lost … 10 million gained) In thousands
- 35. Percent Change in Non-farm Employment (Sept 2014/Sept 2013)
- 36. REALTORS® Confidence Index*: Outlook in
- 37. Unemployment Rate
- 38. Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Claims In thousands
- 39. Employment Rate
- 40. “Take This Job and Shove It …
- 41. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy for 6 years!) %
- 42. Non-worrisome CPI Inflation – Yet COLA of 1.7% in 2015
- 43. Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 3%)
- 44. Monetary Policy Quantitative Easing … Finished Fed
- 45. Inventory of Homes for Sale
- 46. Shrinking Shadow Inventory (but not in CT, NY, NJ)
- 47. Distressed Property Sales (% of total sales)
- 48. Household Net Worth at All-Time High $ billion
- 49. Vacation Home Sales In thousands
- 50. Falling Birth Rate in the U.S.
- 51. U.S. Legal Immigration
- 52. Next China? … Mexico + Latin America!
- 53. Sales to International Buyers Increased Both in
- 54. Canada Leads in Number of Transactions China Leads in Dollar Volume
- 55. Florida—First Choice for International Buyers
- 56. Economic Forecast
- 57. Housing Forecast
- 58. Median Expected Price Change of
- 59. Let’s Spin the Bottle !
- 60. How Young Are REALTORS® ?
- 61. Spin the Globe … Find the Source of Improving Standard of Living
- 62. When, How, What, Why? British Glorious Revolution
- 63. Participants in Democracy to Protect Property Rights!
Mel Watt
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
Director
Слайд 3Real Estate Trends and Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®
Presentation
at NAR Annual Residential Forum
New Orleans, LA
November 7, 2014
New Orleans, LA
November 7, 2014
Слайд 14Household Net Worth
($5,500 vs. $195,500)
x31
x46
x36
x34
x46
Homeowner net worth ranges from 31 to
46 times that of renters
x36
Source: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances
Слайд 15From 2010 to Today
Homeowners
Recovering Wealth for those who bought during the
bubble years
Accumulating Wealth for those who bought since 2010
Renters
No progress
Accumulating Wealth for those who bought since 2010
Renters
No progress
Слайд 20Harvard Elderly Housing Study
One in Five Americans will be 65 or
over by 2030
Homeowners who have paid off mortgages before retirement have lower housing costs and have equity cushion health care expenses
Renters face high housing costs and force millions of low-income older adults to sacrifice spending other necessities, including food and health care
Homeowners who have paid off mortgages before retirement have lower housing costs and have equity cushion health care expenses
Renters face high housing costs and force millions of low-income older adults to sacrifice spending other necessities, including food and health care
Слайд 23First-time Buyer Share (Less than 30% of All Buyers for 18
months)
Among only primary owner-occupants (excluding investors)
= 33% in 2014 … Lowest since 1987
Слайд 25Where Are Young People Hiding?
57 million Americans or 18.1% of the
population live in a multi-generational family household in 2012,
double the number who lived in such households in 1980
Of those who are 25-34:
20% of the unemployed live with parents
12% of employed live with parents
double the number who lived in such households in 1980
Of those who are 25-34:
20% of the unemployed live with parents
12% of employed live with parents
Pew Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Слайд 28Desire of Gen Y to Buy a Home?
75% believe home ownership
is an important long-term goal
73% believe ownership is an excellent investment
59% of young renters (18 to 39) believe owning a home makes more sense, but 73% of young renters also believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today
REALTOR® Education Opportunity
Many young people think 20 percent down payment is needed !
73% believe ownership is an excellent investment
59% of young renters (18 to 39) believe owning a home makes more sense, but 73% of young renters also believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today
REALTOR® Education Opportunity
Many young people think 20 percent down payment is needed !
Fannie Mae, 2013 Demand Institute Housing and Community Survey
Слайд 29Opening the Credit Box
FICO New Method
Thank You Director Mel Watt
But, please
clarify put-back risk so that lenders can be confident
Not Yet a Thank You Secretary Julian Castro
FHA premiums need to come down commensurate with falling default rate
Historic low mortgage default rates on recent vintages (2010-2014)
Not Yet a Thank You Secretary Julian Castro
FHA premiums need to come down commensurate with falling default rate
Historic low mortgage default rates on recent vintages (2010-2014)
Слайд 30
10 best cities for millennials to buy a home
By MarketWatch
Published: Aug 3,
2014 8:14 a.m. ET
Слайд 31Millennial Housing Demand Returns
Austin
Dallas-Ft. Worth
Denver
Des Moines
Grand Rapids
Minneapolis
New Orleans
Ogden
Salt Lake City
Seattle-Tacoma
Слайд 36
REALTORS® Confidence Index*:
Outlook in Next Six Months for Single-Family Homes
Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
*An index above 50 means there are more respondents having “moderate” or “strong” outlook than respondents with “weak” outlook.
Слайд 44Monetary Policy
Quantitative Easing … Finished
Fed Funds Rate … hike in 2015
Q1/Q2
Earlier Move to Tighten because of Inflation Pressure
Long-term Steady State Rate (2016 onwards) .. 10 year Treasury at 5.0%
Mortgage Rates reaching 6% by 2016
Earlier Move to Tighten because of Inflation Pressure
Long-term Steady State Rate (2016 onwards) .. 10 year Treasury at 5.0%
Mortgage Rates reaching 6% by 2016
Слайд 53Sales to International Buyers Increased
Both in Terms of Transactions and Price
Estimate
is for 12 month period April 2013 - March 2014.
Слайд 58
Median Expected Price Change of REALTORS® in Next 12 Months, By
State
Based on July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
July 2014-September 2014 RCI Surveys
Слайд 62When, How, What, Why?
British Glorious Revolution of 1688
William and Mary
arrive to say …
Power not with King but with people via Parliament
No Taxation with Representation
Life, Liberty, and (Acquire) Property
American Revolution of 1776
Power resides not with King but with people
No Taxation with Representation
Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness
Power not with King but with people via Parliament
No Taxation with Representation
Life, Liberty, and (Acquire) Property
American Revolution of 1776
Power resides not with King but with people
No Taxation with Representation
Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness
