Бизнес недвижимости презентация

объектов недвижимости) на интервале времени 5 лет.
Доходы образуют арендные платежи, различные для различных типов приобретаемых объектов.
Инвестор формирует портфель, приобретая объекты с различными характеристиками ожидаемых доходов.
Арендные доходы, кроме различий объектов, зависят от будущих ситуаций на рынке: оптимистической (высокие доходы), стабильной (без изменений доходности), пессимистической (низкие доходы).
Ситуации имитируются вероятностным образом; при этом сформированный портфель не меняют.
Результат оценивается как суммарный арендный доход портфеля на протяжении рассматриваемого периода (пять лет).

real estate objects, which will provide rent income dependently on market parameters in a future time period.
It can choose different real estate assets for its portfolio.
It has no control over the market provided rent incomes.
As an experienced investor it understands difference of portfolio expected rent incomes for different market tendencies (positive or negative) during long-time period.
It knows that every year the rent income depends on market situation (optimistic, stable, pessimistic).
Each team must determine its risk strategy in order to form its portfolio with better rent income.
Teams compete to obtain the best portfolio income during long-time period after portfolios forming.

Market Situation (T1)

Market Situation (T2)

Market Situation (T3)

Market Situation (T4)

Market Situation (T5)

Serial of years [T1-T5]

… T

3 4 5
Future Expectations
TO BE DRAWN

t

₤ mln

? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ?

Information:

*Price of asset
*Rent Income
*Market
stochastic
expectations

PORTFOLIO FORMING

Rent Income of real estate assets

4

Price of Unit (eg price of commercial building)
[₤ mln] 20 30 40 50

Rent income [%] (depended on Market stochastic expectations)
#1-Optimistic 10 12 14 15
#2-Stable 10 10 10 10
#3-Pessimistic 10 8 6 5

Rent Income [₤ mln]:
#1-Optimistic 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.5
#2-Stable 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
#3-Pessimistic 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5

Types [1-4]
and different Market situation

Pessimistic Stable Optimistic

Expected Rent Income [₤mln]

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

Possible non-linear one

₤mln 100 each portfolio)

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

100=50+50

100=40+30+30


100=
20+20+20+20+20

situations

Different #1-Optimistic #2-Stable #3-Pessimistic
combinations
from types {1-4} [₤ mln] [₤ mln] [₤ mln]

100 = 50+50 7.5+7.5 = 15 5+5 = 10 2.5+2.5 = 5
100 = 40+40+20 5.6+5.6+2=13.2 4+4+2=10 2.4+2.4+2=6.8
100 = 50+30+20 7.5+3.6+2=13.1 5+3+2=10 2.5+2.4+2=6.9
100 = 40+30+30 5.6+3.6+3.6=12.8 4+3+3=10 2.4+2.4+2.4=7.2
100 = 40+20+20+20 5.6+2+2+2=11.6 4+2+2+2=10 2.4+2+2+2=8.4
100 = 30+30+20+20 3.6+3.6+2+2=11.2 3+3+2+2=10 2.4+2.4+2+2=8.8
100 = 20+20+20+20+20 2+2+2+2+2= 10 2+2+2+2+2=10 2+2+2+2+2=10

Full list of Rent Incomes for
₤mln100 Portfolio of different combinations

Pessimistic

SAMPLE of Distribution: PROBABILITY
CUBE {1-6}, e.g.: Pessimistic {1,2,3} 1/2
Stable {4} 1/6
Optimistic {5,6} 1/3

Future periods [t]

1 2 3 4 5

Pessim. Stable Optimist.

Negative tendency)

₤100 mln Portfolios Rent Income (negative tendency)
constructions T1pess. T2stab. T3pess. T4optim. T5pess. ∑
50+50 2.5+2.5 5+5 2.5+2.5 7.5+7.5 2.5+2.5 40
40+30+30 7.2 10 7.2 12.8 7.2 44.4
20+20+20+20+20 10 10 10 10 10 50

Future periods [t]

1 2 3 4 5

Pessim. Stable Optimist.

Positive tendency)

₤100 mln Portfolios Rent Income (positive tendency)
constructions T1optim. T2stab. T3pess. T4optim. T5stab. ∑
50+50 7.5+7.5 5+5 2.5+2.5 7.5+7.5 5+5 55
40+30+30 12.8 10 7.2 12.8 10 52.8
20+20+20+20+20 10 10 10 10 10 50
[mln ₤]

Future periods [t]

1 2 3 4 5

Pessim. Stable Optimist.

are simulated by different distributions for optimistic and pessimistic sides of Cube {1,2,3,4,5,6}, e.g.:
Positive tendency sample:
Pessimistic sides {1,2} with a pessimistic probability = 1/3
Stable sides {3} with a stable probability = 1/6
Optimistic sides {4,5,6} with an optimistic probability = 1/2
Negative tendency sample:
Pessimistic sides {1,2,3} with a pessimistic probability = 1/2
Stable sides {4} with a stable probability = 1/6
Optimistic sides {5,6} with an optimistic probability = 1/3
Market tendency is realized through multi-step drawing by Cube with defined positive or negative distribution.
REMARK: Because of stochastic nature of drawing summary results can be different from claimed tendency (i.e. it is possible to have negative results for positive market tendency and vise versa)

in order to form portfolio
Real Estate units’ costs and expected rent incomes – see lower*
Rent income dependences on market stochastic situations (stable, pessimistic and optimistic) are defined through the 6-side Cube and fixed for the claimed market tendency – see lower*

PART 1 There are no limits for any type of real estate objects
Long-time market tendency (positive or negative) is claimed before than teams start to form their portfolios
Investing teams form their portfolios according to their risk policy. They try to maximize summary rent income.
Information about formed portfolios is gathered and shown on the general table.
It is drawn a serial of market situations for claimed tendency: eg 5 or 10 drawings. Summary rent income is appraised for every team.
The 3-4 serials are realized for training and risk policy checking.
5. Best sums define winners.

4

Price of Unit (e.g. price of commercial building)
[₤ mln] 20 30 40 50

Rent income [₤ mln] (depended on Market expectations)

#1-Optimistic 2.0 3.6 5.6 7.5
#2-Stable 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
#3-Pessimistic 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5