to the Project Management Body of Knowledge 4th Edition, Project Management Institute Inc., © 2008
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Project Risk Management презентация
Содержание
- 1. Project Risk Management
- 2. Risk Management “The process involved with identifying,
- 3. Why Do We Manage Risk? Project problems
- 4. Key Terms Risk Tolerance – The amount
- 5. How Do We Manage Risk? Use the
- 6. Plan Risk Management Project Scope
- 7. What is a Risk Management Plan? Methodology
- 8. What is a Risk Mgmt Plan (Cont’d)?
- 9. Risk Breakdown Structure Lists categories and subcategories where risks may arise
- 10. Identify Risks Risk Management Plan
- 11. Information Gathering Techniques Brainstorming Delphi technique Successive
- 12. Diagramming Techniques Cause and Effect Diagrams Also
- 13. Risk Register List of Identified risks Potential responses Root causes Updated risk categories (if required)
- 14. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk
- 15. Methodologies Probability and Impact Matrix Based on
- 16. Probability and Impact Matrix Define Probability Scale & Impact Scale Probability Scale Impact Scale
- 17. Probability and Impact Plots Rate each risk
- 18. Risk Register Update Add Probability and
- 19. Risk Register
- 20. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Risk
- 21. Quantitative Risk Analysis Analyze numerically the probability
- 22. Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
- 23. Decision Tree Analysis Decision Definition Decision Node
- 24. Plan Risk Responses Risk
- 25. Strategies Negative Risks (or Threats) Avoid Transfer
- 26. Monitor and Control Risks Risk
Risk Management “The process involved with identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk. It includes maximizing the results of positive risks and minimizing the consequences of negative events”
Слайд 2Risk Management
“The process involved with identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk.
It includes maximizing the results of positive risks and minimizing the consequences of negative events”
Слайд 3Why Do We Manage Risk?
Project problems can be reduced as much
as 90% by using risk analysis
Positives:
More info available during planning
Improved probability of success/optimum project
Negatives:
Belief that all risks are accounted for
Project cut due to risk level
Positives:
More info available during planning
Improved probability of success/optimum project
Negatives:
Belief that all risks are accounted for
Project cut due to risk level
Слайд 4Key Terms
Risk Tolerance – The amount of acceptable risk
Risk Adverse –
Someone that does not want to take risks
Risk Factors
Probability of occurrence
Range of possible outcomes (impact or amount at stake
Expected Timing of event
Anticipated frequency of risk events from that source
Risk Factors
Probability of occurrence
Range of possible outcomes (impact or amount at stake
Expected Timing of event
Anticipated frequency of risk events from that source
Слайд 5How Do We Manage Risk?
Use the six risk management processes
Plan Risk
Management
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
Monitor and Control Risks
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
Monitor and Control Risks
Слайд 6Plan Risk Management
Project Scope Statement
Cost Management Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational
Process Assets
Risk Management Plan
Planning Meetings and Analysis
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Слайд 7What is a Risk Management Plan?
Methodology – Approach, tools, & data
Roles
& Responsibilities
Budgeting – Resources to be put into risk management
Timing – When and how often
Risk Categories – Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Definitions – Risk probabilities and impact
Budgeting – Resources to be put into risk management
Timing – When and how often
Risk Categories – Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS)
Definitions – Risk probabilities and impact
Слайд 8What is a Risk Mgmt Plan (Cont’d)?
Probability and Impact Matrix
Stakeholder tolerances
Reporting
formats
Tracking
Tracking
Слайд 10Identify Risks
Risk Management Plan
Activity Cost Estimates
Activity Duration Estimates
Scope Baseline
Stakeholder Register
Cost Management
Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Quality Management Plan
Project Documents
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational Process Assets
Schedule Management Plan
Quality Management Plan
Project Documents
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational Process Assets
Risk Register
Documentation Reviews
Information Gathering Techniques
Checklist Analysis
Assumption Analysis
Diagramming Techniques
SWOT Analysis
Expert Judgment
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Слайд 11Information Gathering Techniques
Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Successive anonymous questionnaires on project risks with responses
summarized for further analysis
Interviewing
Root cause identification
Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis
Interviewing
Root cause identification
Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis
Слайд 12Diagramming Techniques
Cause and Effect Diagrams
Also known as Ishikawa or fishbone
Product Delivered
Late
Bad Specs
Insufficient Resources
Inadequate Time
Project Prioritization
Testing
Materials
Potential Causes
Effect
Personnel
Слайд 13Risk Register
List of
Identified risks
Potential responses
Root causes
Updated risk categories (if required)
Слайд 14Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Risk Register
Risk Management Plan
Project Scope Statement
Organizational Process Assets
Risk
Register Updates
Risk probability and impact statement
Probability and impact matrix
Risk data quality assessment
Risk categorization
Risk urgency assessment
Expert Judgement
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Слайд 15Methodologies
Probability and Impact Matrix
Based on Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
From
1950’s analysis of military systems
Слайд 16Probability and Impact Matrix
Define Probability Scale & Impact Scale
Probability Scale
Impact Scale
Слайд 17Probability and Impact Plots
Rate each risk on scales then plot on
matrix
Develop mitigation technique for risks above tolerance
Develop mitigation technique for risks above tolerance
Слайд 18Risk Register Update
Add
Probability and Impact Matrix results
Perform quality check on
results
Categorize the risks to make them easier to handle
Perform urgency assessment to determine which risk need immediate attention
Categorize the risks to make them easier to handle
Perform urgency assessment to determine which risk need immediate attention
Слайд 20Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk Register
Risk Management Plan
Cost Management Plan
Schedule Management Plan
Organizational
Process Assets
Risk Register Updates
Data gathering and representation techniques
Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
Expert Judgment
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Слайд 21Quantitative Risk Analysis
Analyze numerically the probability and consequence of each risk
Monte
Carlo analysis popular
Decision Tree analysis on test
Diagram that describes a decision and probabilities associated with the choices
Expected Monetary Value Analysis (EMV)
Decision Tree analysis on test
Diagram that describes a decision and probabilities associated with the choices
Expected Monetary Value Analysis (EMV)
Слайд 23Decision Tree Analysis
Decision Definition
Decision Node
Chance Node
Net Path Value
EMV of New Bldg
Node = $41.5!
EMV of Upgrade Node = $49!
Слайд 24Plan Risk Responses
Risk Management Plan
Risk Register
Risk Register Updates
Strategies for negative risks
or threats
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Contingent response strategy
Expert Judgment
Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
Contingent response strategy
Expert Judgment
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Project Management Plan Updates
Risk-related Contract Decisions
Слайд 25Strategies
Negative Risks (or Threats)
Avoid
Transfer
Mitigate
Acceptance
Positive Risks (or Opportunities)
Exploit
Share
Enhance
Acceptance
Слайд 26Monitor and Control Risks
Risk Register
Project Management Plan
Work Performance Information
Performance Reports
Risk Register
Updates
Risk reassessment
Risk audits
Variance and trend analysis
Technical performance measurement
Reserve analysis
Status meetings
Inputs
Outputs
Tools & Techniques
Organizational Process Assets
Change Requests
Project Management Plan Updates
Project Document Updates
