Simulation modeling
Using a random number, selected using tables or random number generators, it is necessary to simulate the occurrence of failures of the software within 10 hours
The number of failures in 1 hour
Frequency
Simulation modeling
Using a random number, selected using tables or random number generators, it is necessary to simulate the occurrence of failures of the software within 10 hours
The number of failures in 1 hour
Frequency
Simulation is modeled by some random variable.
First, experimental data gives the frequency of occurrence of possible values of this variable.
Then based on frequencies the probability is calculated => the cumulative probability.
Knowing the cumulative probability, establish a correspondence between random numbers and the values of a random variable
Cumulative risk is the sum of all peak probabilities, its value tends to 1. Depending on how many decimal places will have values of cumulative probability, we group the random numbers.
Using linear interpolation, find the value of any damages, if the company has 6 channels of leakage.
The number of leakage channels
Damage $
Linear interpolation is performed on the basis of formula P1(x) = ax + b of the function f, given in two points x0 and x1 of the interval [a, b]. The formula for linear interpolation is:
P1(x) - value of the function at the point x;
x - value of the point x;
x0 - value of the start point of the segment;
x1 -value of the end point of the segment;
f(x0) - value of the function at the starting point of the segment;
f(x1) - value of the function at the end point of the segment.
Guidelines for solution:
For the 1st month a forecast of 13 leaks was given (by information security professionals). Using a simple exponential smoothing model, give the forecast on the number of leaks on the 7th month, if the smoothing constant α = 0.8
Month
Number of conf. inf. leakage
The new forecast is determined by the formula
Ft+1 is the forecast value for a new period; α - the smoothing constant in the interval [0; 1]; At - the actual value at the last period; Ft - the forecasted value in the last period
Guidelines for solution:
Nпр = 25, Nнаст = 33, а Nнаст/пр = 22.
credibility /reliability
Nнаст/пр – the number of occurred events, which was forecasted;
Nпр – the total number of events, which was forecasted.
Guidelines for solution:
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