NYSE: TWTR Jason A. Moser презентация

mobile communications.
The coming decade for the big names in social media will be all about engagement.
Twitter’s real-time mobile platform and suite of apps is a trusted form of communication for media outlets and users around the world.

Why buy?

with an Internet connection. Tweets are limited to 140 characters and possess a real time dynamic that places the user exactly where they want to be.

were the first to really understand the value and the power of Twitter. They joined Twitter not just as a place where they could break news, but as a place where they could source news and confirm news.”

“Ultimately the goal is to reach every person on the planet.”

Katie Jacobs Stanton, Twitter VP of Global Media

and information instantly, without barriers.”

were excited about it for a number of reasons but mostly because it so nicely fits into our mission, to give people the power to create and share ideas and information instantly without barriers. The same was true for Vine. And with both of these products, we now have a suite of mobile apps, including 2 of the most powerful native mobile video apps, and are well positioned as more and more people turn to video as a way to express themselves, share what's happening around them, connect with others and view content they enjoy.”
CEO Dick Costolo, 1Q2015 Earnings Call

40 million users today.
Over 1 billion loops played daily.
Priority on building a great product, monetization will flow from that.

million signed into the app in just the first 10 days.
“Fight of the Century” exposed the power and potential of the platform.
Priority on building a great product, monetization will flow from that.

today happens on Twitter.

that to the The Big Bang Theory, which nearly doubled Breaking Bad's audience with 20.44 million people. Breaking Bad did not even make the top 20 in terms of TV viewers, but the Big Bang Theory was nowhere to be found on Twitter. It's like these two shows exist in entirely different universes, despite being shown on the same medium.” 
http://vator.tv/news/2013-10-07-breaking-bad-wins-first-nielsen-twitter-ratings

Breaking Bad versus The Big Bang

Twitter engagement around TV programs.
Measure effectiveness of Twitter TV engagement strategies by providing insight into who was actually reached.
Identify true influencers – people whose Tweets are actually read by large audiences.

Nielsen Twitter TV Ratings

Twitter in real-time for every program aired across over 250 of the most popular US TV channels.  

entertainment…virtually any vertical.
Real-time videos or photos are prepared for Twitter.
Short, high impact content from media partner (ESPN for example) shows along with a 6 second ad pre-roll from customer (McDonald’s, Verizon, etc.).
Sponsored premium content is delivered to targeted audiences.
These audiences go beyond just those who may or may not follow the content provider (organic followers).
Feature of this product is the Twitter video card which brings the media into view with a one-tap playback and video analytics.

How Amplify works

card in late 2014.
This shows as a promoted Tweet in any user’s timeline.
In one week Budweiser saw 2.5 million video views of the promoted ad.
More importantly they witnessed an earned-to-paid ratio of 6:1.
Translation: For every one paid view the card got, it yielded another six earned (essentially free views).
Higher the number earned, higher the ROI.
Early signs point toward a product here that offers compelling ROI for clients.

build apps and ecosystems.
Syndication: Taking Twitter’s content beyond the core platform and to partners like TV networks, websites, etc.
Commerce/Payments: Exclusive NFL Draft Day Jameis Winston jersey experiment, more like this will follow.
Video: Periscope, Vine and video taken in the platform could be major drivers in the future (particularly Periscope).
Data, data, data: Acquisition of Gnip, partnership with IBM, etc. Value of data these networks offer is still being realized.

Pieces to put together

blogs, YouTube, Disqus, WordPress; we account for conversation on all those platforms as well as Wikipedia page views. Each of them adds value. But Twitter is the kingpin and offers the most value.“
Jaime Brugueras, VP analytics, Networked Insights

The Value of Data

the world – as both a platform for hundreds of millions of consumers and business professionals, and as a synthesizer of trends. This partnership, drawing on IBM’s leading cloud-based analytics platform, will help clients enrich business decisions with an entirely new class of data. This is the latest example of how IBM is reimagining work.”
Ginni Rometty, Chairman, President and CEO, IBM

The Value of Data

various acquisitions in order to enhance its capabilities and reach.

The age of consolidation

was acquired by Google in 2007.

Anthony Noto CFO since 8/2014 Former Director of Technology, Media & Telecom Investment Banking at Goldman Sachs.

45%.
How do they look today?
1Q2015 Gross margin 67.1% vs 65.9% year ago.
1Q2015 Adj. EBITDA margin 24% vs 15% year ago.
This capital-light and scalable business model supports high margins. In time Twitter will achieve profitability.

Margins will matter

with ~$2 billion in net cash.
Is Twitter “overvalued” today?
Assuming Twitter hits $7.8 billion sales in 2019 as estimates imply, what would the market pay then? 5X sales? 10X sales?
At 7X sales you have a $56.4 billion market cap, 130% up from today’s number of $24.5 billion.
Is it worth trying to peg a specific price in the future? We could be fantastically wrong in either direction.

Understanding future worth

as compensation, but these are real costs that the business has to bear on the income statement. Understanding the business is still very young and finding its way, we want to see this number start coming down over time.

say they’re going to do.
Competition: Nobody is immune.
Engagement: Getting them there is one thing, keeping them there is another.
Users: While 302M MAUs is impressive, it better grow.
Monetization: If Vine and Periscope fail to meaningfully contribute we’ve got problems.
Target: There seem to be constant rumors of acquisition which, real or not, could result in significant volatility.
Acquisitions: If all of these little bolt-on acquisitions fail to help Twitter ultimately grow sales, it could be painful.

Things can go wrong

Financial

Twitter’s share price since going public.

at once.
Twitter IS a stock in which you want to build a position over time.
Twitter is more than just a niche communication platform. It’s a tech company with a tremendous amount of valuable data.
The biggest challenge investors face with Twitter today is the unknown. Where will this business be in five years?
This is a headline stock today, the market loves to punish it when it misses Wall Street’s expectations.
Foolish investors should focus less on Wall Street’s expectations game, be patient, make sure management does what they say they’re going to do.
Investors who can’t plan on owning these shares for at least the next five years shouldn’t buy them at all.

Bottom line for investors