Vladimir Zhulego
Istanbul , 2012 y.
Istanbul , 2012 y.
Forecasting based on the trends.
3
2. Disadvantages trends forecasting:
a) such projections did not reveal the reasons for the changes in the market,
b) do not allow to take into account long-term impact of significant factors,
c) does not take into account the state of the market, its potential
d) do not create any impact on market mechanisms,
3. Task:
to construct model of companies interaction on the market,
which will not have these disadvantages.
Disadvantages of a one-parameter model of competition.
5
Diagram illustrates the transition to a two-parameter model of competition
with segmentation
The model takes into account:
saturation of the market,
flow of customers caused by advertising,
flow of customers caused by the difference in rates,
saturation of ARPU of each segment in each company
"Market forces" at first glance it seems unmanageable, but in fact, new approaches
provide powerful new tools for forecasting the market and the challenge
of management the company is that would have to learn how to use them.
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