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The Future Of Digital: 2014 презентация
Содержание
- 1. The Future Of Digital: 2014
- 2. intelligence.businessinsider.com Tony Danova Senior Research Analyst BI Intelligence
- 3. There are now nearly 3 billion people online Source: International Communication Union, Google
- 4. Four billion to go Source: International Communication Union, Google
- 5. Attention is shifting to digital, especially mobile Source: eMarketer, April 2014
- 6. This is a generational shift Source: Ofcom
- 7. One law of media…
- 8. Money follows eyeballs.
- 9. Ad spending is moving to digital (and
- 10. Print ads have fallen off a cliff Source: Newspaper Association Of America *Estimate
- 11. Google is now bigger than all newspapers, magazines Source: Google, NAA, PIB
- 12. Google now dwarfs “big media” Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
- 13. Google is almost half the size of all global TV advertising Source: Google, PWC
- 14. For many years TV folks have (rightly) laughed off digital concerns
- 15. Time to stop laughing.
- 16. Ratings are falling… Source: Nielsen
- 17. Pay TV subscriptions are dropping… Source: Leichtman Research Group
- 18. Facebook reaches more young people than free TV Source: Nielsen, January 2013
- 19. Netflix now has more US subscribers than HBO Source: Netflix, SNL Kagan
- 20. YouTube reaches more 18-34s than any cable network
- 21. Digital video revenue is no longer a joke… Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Company Filings
- 22. iTunes and Netflix already dwarf small cable networks Source: News Reports, Company Filings
- 23. YouTube is closing in on broadcast-network revenue Source: News Reports, BI Intelligence estimates, Company Filings
- 24. (Some) live sports are now being streamed Source: Ooyala 2014
- 25. TV now has to share attention with digital Source: Millward Brown, 2014
- 26. So, eyeballs are leaving TV
- 27. But, so far, TV money is hanging in there
- 28. TV still massive, digital video still a blip Source: Nielsen, IAB
- 29. So no worries in TV land?
- 30. Yes, worries.
- 31. It’s a generational shift — look what Millennials are doing Source: Ofcom
- 32. Money follows eyeballs… Source: Mary Meeker, IAB, eMarketer
- 33. So it’s only a matter of time.
- 34. What’s going on in digital?
- 35. Smartphone sales are still booming Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
- 36. Tablets have carved out a chunk of
- 37. “Phablets” are replacing small smartphones Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 38. Nearly half of TVs are now connected Source: Leichtman Research Group, BI Intelligence estimates
- 39. “Wearables” are overhyped but growing Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 40. Cars are increasingly connected Source: SBD, GSMA
- 41. 300 million PCs are still sold each year Source: Gartner, IDC, BI Intelligence estimates
- 42. Should you be “mobile only?”
- 43. No!
- 44. It’s a “multi-screen” world Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
- 45. You should be “mobile, too.”
- 46. ~60% of online devices are now smartphones or tablets Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 47. We spend an hour a day on our smartphones Source: Experian Marketing Services, May 2013
- 48. We spend ½ hour on tablet each time we use it Source: Google, August 2012
- 49. More than ¼ of Internet traffic is mobile Source: StatCounter, BI Intelligence estimates
- 50. Mobile has extended the digital day to 18/7 Source: Google Analytics, Business Insider
- 51. Each device has a different “prime time” Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011
- 52. Where are we in the mobile device cycle?
- 53. Developed mobile markets are nearing maturity Source: comScore
- 54. The action is now in China, India, and emerging markets Source: Mediacells via The Guardian
- 55. China is already twice the size of
- 56. Prices are dropping fast Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 57. iPhone sales growth has slowed (iPhone 6 will help) Source: Company Filings
- 58. Chinese companies sell ~25% of smartphones in
- 59. Global tablet growth has hit a wall Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
- 60. (iPad now experiencing “negative growth”) Source: Apple
- 61. Why have tablet sales cratered?
- 62. Long upgrade cycle Phablet cannibalization Need keyboard for serious input Price
- 63. What about the platform war?
- 64. We have a winner!
- 65. Apple is strong in the US, where it’s a two-horse race Source: comScore
- 66. But, globally, it’s an Android world
- 67. ~85% of smartphones run Google’s Android Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
- 68. ~65% of tablets run Android Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 69. ~70% of all new computing gadgets run
- 70. Android used to lag Apple badly with app developers.
- 71. Not anymore.
- 72. Android “fragmentation” problem is improving Source: Google
- 73. Android now more popular with developers than iOS Source: Developer Economics, Q3 2014
- 74. Android will soon overtake iOS in app revenue Source: Jana, App Annie, BI Intelligence estimates
- 75. Android is catching up to iOS in
- 76. Android now generates more global ad traffic than iOS Source: Opera Mediaworks
- 77. The key digital media trends…
- 78. Mobile Social Native Video Programmatic
- 79. Most digital growth is now mobile Source: comScore, April 2014
- 80. Messaging apps are exploding Source: Company Statements, News Reports, BI Intelligence estimates
- 81. Social networks and sharing are exploding Source:
- 82. Mobile video is booming… Source: Cisco, 2013
- 83. Mobile video has enabled the rise of
- 84. Social and music are now mostly mobile Source: Company Filings
- 85. Mobile is driving all of Facebook’s growth Source: Company Filings
- 86. Mobile is now a third of eCommerce traffic Source: Monetate
- 87. PayPal powers $30 billion in mobile payments
- 88. Venmo is (finally) replacing friend-to-friend payments Source: PayPal, BI Intelligence
- 89. Ad growth is mobile, social, video, native,
- 90. Mobile is a “green field” Source: eMarketer
- 91. Social is booming Source: BI Intelligence estimates, BIA/Kelsey
- 92. “Display” ad spending is still respectable, but… Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
- 93. Growth is shifting to “native”… Source: BI Intelligence estimates, IAB
- 94. And “programmatic” Source: BI Intelligence estimates, Magna Global, IDC
- 95. Google is still the digital advertising king Source: Company Filings Note: Based on GAAP revenue.
- 96. Google’s YouTube dominates digital video and video ads Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
- 97. Google’s Chrome browser is crushing Firefox and IE Source: StatCounter
- 98. Google’s Android has peak-Windows-like market share Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
- 99. In Europe, Google has peak-Windows-like search share Source: StatCounter
- 100. Basically, Google is swallowing the world… Source: Google, 2014 Is An Estimate
- 101. (And people are noticing!) Source: StatCounter
- 102. (For Microsoft, DOJ attack was the beginning of the end) Source: StatCounter
- 103. Have Google and Facebook won?
- 104. Not necessarily.
- 105. Money follows eyeballs.
- 106. Search click growth is finally decelerating Source: Google
- 107. US desktop search queries are now shrinking
- 108. “No one uses Facebook anymore” — Gen Z-er Source: Piper Jaffray
- 109. Why do teens love Instagram?
- 110. What’s Tumblr for?
- 111. What about phone calls? Do people talk anymore?
- 112. Digital is the medium for the new generation. Digital will grow for decades.
- 113. So, what’s next?
- 114. Connected cars — we spend 1.2 hours
- 115. Wearables (someday) Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 116. Smartwatches, like Apple Watch, should do okay Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 117. Fitness bands will remain niche Source: NPD
- 118. “Internet of Things” — 20B connected devices by 2020 Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 119. We’ll fill our houses with smart devices
- 120. And companies will buy them by the billions Source: BI Intelligence estimates
- 121. Gain access to all BI Intelligence reports,
- 122. Thank You! intelligence.businessinsider.com
intelligence.businessinsider.com Tony Danova Senior Research Analyst BI Intelligence
Слайд 3There are now nearly 3 billion people online
Source: International Communication Union,
Google
Слайд 9Ad spending is moving to digital (and mobile)
Source: IAB, U.S. Census
Bureau, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 21Digital video revenue is no longer a joke…
Source: BI Intelligence estimates,
Company Filings
Слайд 23YouTube is closing in on broadcast-network revenue
Source: News Reports, BI Intelligence
estimates, Company Filings
Слайд 35Smartphone sales are still booming
Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 36Tablets have carved out a chunk of PC sales
Source: Gartner, IDC,
Strategy Analytics, Company Releases
Слайд 38Nearly half of TVs are now connected
Source: Leichtman Research Group, BI
Intelligence estimates
Слайд 44It’s a “multi-screen” world
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analytics, Company Filings, BI
Intelligence estimates
Слайд 51Each device has a different “prime time”
Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital
(USA), December 2011
Слайд 55China is already twice the size of the US market
Source: China
Internet Network Information Center
Слайд 58Chinese companies sell ~25% of smartphones in world
Source: Canalys, IDC, Strategy
Analytics, BI Intelligence, Company Reports
Слайд 59Global tablet growth has hit a wall
Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI
Intelligence estimates
Слайд 67~85% of smartphones run Google’s Android
Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence
estimates
Слайд 69~70% of all new computing gadgets run Android
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy
Analytics, Company Filings, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 74Android will soon overtake iOS in app revenue
Source: Jana, App Annie,
BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 75Android is catching up to iOS in developer payouts
Source: Jana, App
Annie, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 80Messaging apps are exploding
Source: Company Statements, News Reports, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 81Social networks and sharing are exploding
Source: BI Intelligence estimates based on
data from company filings, comScore, Global Web Index, Totem and news reports
Слайд 83Mobile video has enabled the rise of the YouTube stars
Source: Company
Filings
35 million viewers
8 million viewers
1 million viewers
Слайд 87PayPal powers $30 billion in mobile payments
*PayPal counted a small
portion of Braintree’s transaction volume as its own in the last 12 days of Q4 2013.
Source: PayPal
Слайд 89Ad growth is mobile, social, video, native, programmatic
Source: BI Intelligence estimates
based on data from BIA/Kelsey, IAB, IDC, and Magna Global
Note: Formats overlap. Mobile includes all ad formats that appear on mobile.
Слайд 92“Display” ad spending is still respectable, but…
Source: Company Filings, BI Intelligence
estimates
Слайд 95Google is still the digital advertising king
Source: Company Filings
Note: Based on
GAAP revenue.
Слайд 96Google’s YouTube dominates digital video and video ads
Source: Company Filings, BI
Intelligence estimates
Слайд 98Google’s Android has peak-Windows-like market share
Source: IDC, Strategy Analytics, BI Intelligence
estimates
Слайд 107US desktop search queries are now shrinking
Source: comScore
Note: Explicit user initiated
search queries only.
Слайд 117Fitness bands will remain niche
Source: NPD Group, BI Intelligence estimates; Annual
Data From April Through March
Слайд 119We’ll fill our houses with smart devices
Source: ABI Research, TechNavio, Pike
Research, BI Intelligence estimates
Слайд 121Gain access to all BI Intelligence reports,
forecasts, charts, and data.
Click here to sign up for a trial membership.
