One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making презентация

One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities Subjective decision-making 2

Слайд 1How managers can make a decision in an uncertainty environment?


Слайд 2One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes

with unknown probabilities

Subjective decision-making

2


Слайд 3…no reliable data…
3


Слайд 42 approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty
The Manager uses

the available information and experience to define subjective probabilities > risk conditions

The Manager makes no assumptions concerning the probabilities of external conditions

4


Слайд 54 solutions criteria :
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
Solution Alfa-criterion of Hurwitz
Solution

criterion of Savidge (disclaimer of mini-max)

Solution Criterion of Laplace (Bayesian)

5

The Manager makes no assumptions concerning the probabilities of external conditions


Слайд 6The most suitable criteria?
6


Слайд 7 …take into account philosophy, temperament and viewpoints of the present

leadership of the company

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Слайд 8
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
The criterion of conservatism and attempt to

maximize reliability

External conditions are moody and freakish


8


Слайд 9Define the worst possible result of each strategy
Choose the strategy that

provides the best of the worst results


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Слайд 10
…probability of different states of economy are unknown

11

Decision matrix

The state of the external environment

Alternative
strategies


Criteria

Maxi-min

Maxi-max


Слайд 1111

Strategy S1 is just the most conservative - it implies the

lowest risks, but at the same time promises the lowest profit

Слайд 12The criterion is suitable for small commercial firms whose survival depends

on the ability to avoid losses



12


Слайд 13Solution Alfa-criteria of Hurwitz
Determine the index of the solution - d

for each strategy, which is an average weighted of its extreme outputs

Weighing factors
the coefficient of optimism alpha α, which applies to the maximum return M,
and its addendum 1 - α , which is applicable to the minimum return m

The cost of each strategy:

The strategy with the highest value for di selected as the optimal

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Слайд 14The coefficient of optimism α is located in the range from

0 to 1

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Слайд 15If a Manager is a pessimist, he may decide that α=

0

=> Maxi-Min

If the Manager is optimistic, he may decide that α = 1

=> Maxi-max

15

dead end

prospect


Слайд 16
Suppose that a Manager is optimistic and decides that a =

0,7












Слайд 17…depends on the amount of ….
….depends on their

own relations “Manager for risk”…

17


Слайд 18Alpha-Hurwitz criterion: draw attention to the worst and the best return

of the concrete strategies

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Слайд 19Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)
Explores losses incurred as a

result of making the wrong decision

Losses are measured as the absolute difference between the returns for this strategy, and returns of the most effective strategy within the same state of the economy.

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Слайд 2020
Within each column, the biggest return is deducted from each of

the next return in column (including yourself). The absolute difference between the positions is a measurement of losses


Matrix of losses



Слайд 21The meaning of measurement of losses:
if we have chosen a strategy

that provides the most value for this condition, then we do not consider losses

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Слайд 22But if we choose any other strategy, the loss is the

difference between what happens in fact, and the return that we would get by adopting a more optimal solution

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Слайд 23
When I use the criterion of Savidge, I refuse attempt to

maximize the profit and choose the strategy with a satisfactory return but lower risk

It is useful for the evaluation of a series of projects over a long period!


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