One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making презентация

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1. One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making
2. One or more alternatives lead to a
3. …no reliable data… 3
4. 2 approaches to decision making under conditions
5. 4 solutions criteria : Solution Criterion of
6. The most suitable criteria? 6
7. …take into account philosophy, temperament and
8. Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min) The
9. Define the worst possible result of each
10. …probability of different states of
11. 11 Strategy S1 is just the
12. The criterion is suitable for small commercial
13. Solution Alfa-criteria of Hurwitz Determine the index
14. The coefficient of optimism α is located in the range from 0 to 1 14
15. If a Manager is a pessimist, he
16. Suppose that a Manager is optimistic
17. …depends on the amount of
18. Alpha-Hurwitz criterion: draw attention to the worst
19. Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)
20. 20 Within each column, the biggest return
21. The meaning of measurement of losses: if
22. But if we choose any other strategy,
23. When I use the criterion of

One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities Subjective decision-making 2

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One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making

Слайд 1How managers can make a decision in an uncertainty environment?

Слайд 2One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes

with unknown probabilities

Subjective decision-making

Слайд 3…no reliable data…
3

Слайд 42 approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty
The Manager uses

the available information and experience to define subjective probabilities > risk conditions

The Manager makes no assumptions concerning the probabilities of external conditions

Слайд 54 solutions criteria :
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
Solution Alfa-criterion of Hurwitz
Solution

criterion of Savidge (disclaimer of mini-max)

Solution Criterion of Laplace (Bayesian)

The Manager makes no assumptions concerning the probabilities of external conditions

Слайд 6The most suitable criteria?
6

Слайд 7 …take into account philosophy, temperament and viewpoints of the present

leadership of the company

Слайд 8
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
The criterion of conservatism and attempt to

maximize reliability

External conditions are moody and freakish

Слайд 9Define the worst possible result of each strategy
Choose the strategy that

provides the best of the worst results

Слайд 10
…probability of different states of economy are unknown

11

Decision matrix

The state of the external environment

Alternative
strategies

Criteria

Maxi-min

Maxi-max

Слайд 1111

Strategy S1 is just the most conservative - it implies the

lowest risks, but at the same time promises the lowest profit

Слайд 12The criterion is suitable for small commercial firms whose survival depends

on the ability to avoid losses

Слайд 13Solution Alfa-criteria of Hurwitz
Determine the index of the solution - d

for each strategy, which is an average weighted of its extreme outputs

Weighing factors
the coefficient of optimism alpha α, which applies to the maximum return M,
and its addendum 1 - α , which is applicable to the minimum return m

The cost of each strategy:

The strategy with the highest value for di selected as the optimal

Слайд 14The coefficient of optimism α is located in the range from

0 to 1

Слайд 15If a Manager is a pessimist, he may decide that α=

=> Maxi-Min

If the Manager is optimistic, he may decide that α = 1

=> Maxi-max

dead end

prospect

Слайд 16
Suppose that a Manager is optimistic and decides that a =

0,7

Слайд 17…depends on the amount of ….
….depends on their

own relations “Manager for risk”…

Слайд 18Alpha-Hurwitz criterion: draw attention to the worst and the best return

of the concrete strategies

Слайд 19Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)
Explores losses incurred as a

result of making the wrong decision

Losses are measured as the absolute difference between the returns for this strategy, and returns of the most effective strategy within the same state of the economy.

Слайд 2020
Within each column, the biggest return is deducted from each of

the next return in column (including yourself). The absolute difference between the positions is a measurement of losses

Matrix of losses

Слайд 21The meaning of measurement of losses:
if we have chosen a strategy

that provides the most value for this condition, then we do not consider losses

Слайд 22But if we choose any other strategy, the loss is the

difference between what happens in fact, and the return that we would get by adopting a more optimal solution

Слайд 23
When I use the criterion of Savidge, I refuse attempt to

maximize the profit and choose the strategy with a satisfactory return but lower risk

It is useful for the evaluation of a series of projects over a long period!

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One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making презентация

Содержание

Слайд 1How managers can make a decision in an uncertainty environment?

Слайд 2One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes

Слайд 3…no reliable data…
3

Слайд 42 approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty
The Manager uses

Слайд 54 solutions criteria :
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
Solution Alfa-criterion of Hurwitz
Solution

Слайд 6The most suitable criteria?
6

Слайд 7 …take into account philosophy, temperament and viewpoints of the present

Слайд 8
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
The criterion of conservatism and attempt to

Слайд 9Define the worst possible result of each strategy
Choose the strategy that

Слайд 10
…probability of different states of economy are unknown

11

Слайд 1111

Strategy S1 is just the most conservative - it implies the

Слайд 12The criterion is suitable for small commercial firms whose survival depends

Слайд 13Solution Alfa-criteria of Hurwitz
Determine the index of the solution - d

Слайд 14The coefficient of optimism α is located in the range from

Слайд 15If a Manager is a pessimist, he may decide that α=

Слайд 16
Suppose that a Manager is optimistic and decides that a =

Слайд 17…depends on the amount of ….
….depends on their

Слайд 18Alpha-Hurwitz criterion: draw attention to the worst and the best return

Слайд 19Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)
Explores losses incurred as a

Слайд 2020
Within each column, the biggest return is deducted from each of

Слайд 21The meaning of measurement of losses:
if we have chosen a strategy

Слайд 22But if we choose any other strategy, the loss is the

Слайд 23
When I use the criterion of Savidge, I refuse attempt to

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One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes with unknown probabilities. Subjective decision-making презентация

Содержание

Слайд 1How managers can make a decision in an uncertainty environment?

Слайд 2One or more alternatives lead to a block of possible outcomes

Слайд 3…no reliable data…3

Слайд 42 approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertaintyThe Manager uses

Слайд 54 solutions criteria :Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)Solution Alfa-criterion of HurwitzSolution

Слайд 6The most suitable criteria?6

Слайд 7 …take into account philosophy, temperament and viewpoints of the present

Слайд 8Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)The criterion of conservatism and attempt to

Слайд 9Define the worst possible result of each strategyChoose the strategy that

Слайд 10 …probability of different states of economy are unknown11

Слайд 1111Strategy S1 is just the most conservative - it implies the

Слайд 12The criterion is suitable for small commercial firms whose survival depends

Слайд 13Solution Alfa-criteria of HurwitzDetermine the index of the solution - d

Слайд 14The coefficient of optimism α is located in the range from

Слайд 15If a Manager is a pessimist, he may decide that α=

Слайд 16Suppose that a Manager is optimistic and decides that a =

Слайд 17…depends on the amount of ….….depends on their

Слайд 18Alpha-Hurwitz criterion: draw attention to the worst and the best return

Слайд 19Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)Explores losses incurred as a

Слайд 2020Within each column, the biggest return is deducted from each of

Слайд 21The meaning of measurement of losses:if we have chosen a strategy

Слайд 22But if we choose any other strategy, the loss is the

Слайд 23When I use the criterion of Savidge, I refuse attempt to

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Слайд 3…no reliable data…
3

Слайд 42 approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty
The Manager uses

Слайд 54 solutions criteria :
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
Solution Alfa-criterion of Hurwitz
Solution

Слайд 6The most suitable criteria?
6

Слайд 8
Solution Criterion of Wald (Maxi-min)
The criterion of conservatism and attempt to

Слайд 9Define the worst possible result of each strategy
Choose the strategy that

Слайд 10
…probability of different states of economy are unknown

11

Слайд 1111

Strategy S1 is just the most conservative - it implies the

Слайд 13Solution Alfa-criteria of Hurwitz
Determine the index of the solution - d

Слайд 16
Suppose that a Manager is optimistic and decides that a =

Слайд 17…depends on the amount of ….
….depends on their

Слайд 19Solution criterion of Savage (disclaimer of mini-max)
Explores losses incurred as a

Слайд 2020
Within each column, the biggest return is deducted from each of

Слайд 21The meaning of measurement of losses:
if we have chosen a strategy

Слайд 23
When I use the criterion of Savidge, I refuse attempt to