Decision-making processes. (Chapter 12) презентация

Thomson Learning © 2004 Today’s Business Environment New strategies Reengineering Restructuring Mergers/Acquisitions Downsizing New product/market development . . . Etc.

Слайд 1Chapter Twelve
Decision-Making Processes


Слайд 2Thomson Learning © 2004
Today’s Business Environment
New strategies
Reengineering
Restructuring
Mergers/Acquisitions
Downsizing
New product/market development
. . . Etc.


Слайд 3Thomson Learning © 2004
Decisions Made Inside the Organization
Complex, emotionally charged issues
More rapid

decisions
Less certain environment
Less clarity about means/outcomes
Requires more cooperation

Слайд 4Thomson Learning © 2004
A New Decision-Making Process
Required because
no one person has enough

info to make all major decisions
No one person has enough time and credibility to convince many
Relies less on hard data
Guided by powerful coalition
Permits trial and error approach


Слайд 5Thomson Learning © 2004
Steps in the Rational Approach to Decision-Making


Слайд 6Thomson Learning © 2004
Trade-off
Trade-off
Trade-off


Constraints and Trade-offs During Non-programmed Decision-Making
Personal Constraints:
Desire for prestige,

success;
personal decision style; and
the need to satisfy emotional
needs, cope with pressure,
maintain self-concept

Organizational Constraints:
Need for agreement, shared
perspective, cooperation,
support, corporate culture and
structure, ethical values

Bounded Rationality:
Limited time, information,
resources to deal with complex,
multidimensional issues

Decision/
Choice:
Search for
a high-quality
decision
alternative

Trade-off

Trade-off

Sources: Adapted from Irving L. Janis, Crucial Decisions
(New York: Free Press, 1989); and A. L. George, Presidential
Decision Making in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of
Information and Advice (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1980).


Слайд 7Thomson Learning © 2004
Choice Processes in the Carnegie Model
Hold joint discussion
and interpret

goals
and problems

Share opinions

Establish problem
priorities

Obtain social support
for problem, solution

Adopt the first
alternative
that is acceptable
to the coalition

Conduct a simple,
local search

Use established
procedures if
appropriate

Create a solution
if needed

Managers have
diverse goals,
opinions, values,
experience

Information is
limited
Managers have
many constraints

Uncertainty

Coalition Formation

Search

Satisficing

Conflict






Слайд 8Thomson Learning © 2004
The Incremental Decision Process Model
· Identification Phase
Recognition
Diagnosis
Development Phase
Search
Screen
Design
Selection

Phase
Judgment (evaluation – choice)
Analysis (evaluation)
Bargaining (evaluation – choice)
Authorization
Dynamic Factors

Слайд 9Thomson Learning © 2004
Learning Organization Decision Process When Problem Identification and Problem

Solution Are Uncertain

When problem identification is
uncertain, Carnegie model applies

Political and social process is
needed

Build coalition, seek agreement,
and resolve conflict about goals
and problem priorities

When problem solution is
uncertain, Incremental process
model applies

Incremental, trial-and-error
process is needed

Solve big problems in little steps

Recycle and try again when
blocked

PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION

PROBLEM SOLUTION



Слайд 10Thomson Learning © 2004
Illustration of Independent Streams of Events in the Garbage

Can Model of Decision-Making

Problems
Solutions
Choice
Opportunities
Participants





Problems
Solutions
Choice
Opportunities
Participants





Problems
Solutions
Choice
Opportunities
Participants





Choice Opportunities

Choice Opportunities

Participants

Participants

Middle Management

Problems

Solutions

Solutions

Participants

Problems

Problems

Solutions

Choice
Opportunities

Problems

Participants

Participants

Solutions

Department A

Department B


Слайд 11Thomson Learning © 2004
Contingency Framework for Using Decision Models
Problem
Consensus





Individual:
Rational Approach
Computation

Organization:

Management Science

Individual:
Bargaining, Coalition
Formation

Organization:
Carnegie Model

Individual:
Judgment
Trial-and-error

Organization:
Incremental Decision
Process Model

Individual:
Bargaining and Judgment
Inspiration and Imitation
Learning Organization:
Carnegie and Incremental
Decision Process Models,
Evolving to Garbage Can

Solution
Knowledge

Certain

Uncertain

4

2

1

3


Слайд 12Thomson Learning © 2004
Special Decision Circumstances

High-Velocity Environments

Decision Mistakes and Learning

Escalating Commitment


Слайд 13Thomson Learning © 2004
Decision Styles
Workbook
Activity


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