Decision environment презентация

Содержание

1. Decision environment
2. 3 How managers can make a decision
3. 4 How managers can make a decision in risk – and uncertainty environment?
4. Unlike short-term decisions, long-term decisions are made
5. Solutions matrix I wonder, what
6. This tool: Formalizes the process of decision-making
7. Decision-making in terms of risk
8. Methods of risk evaluation: (Risk – probability of undesired occurense) 9
9. 2 approach to objective measurement of probability
10. A priori (deductive method)‏ No
11. Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏ past
12. Frequency distribution can be converted into a
13. Determine and minimize the risks inherent to
14. Expected value - Value of i outcome
15. Manager choose strategy with the highest expected value 16
16. Expected value E(S)‏ 5,90 9,50 17,65 15,00 15,10 Optimum strategy 17
17. Suppose that expected value of alternatives strategies
18. New criteria – degree of risk May
19. By intuition we feel that the further
20. swing (amplitude) - the difference between
21. root-mean-square deviation The higher root-mean-square deviation - the higher risk 22
22. Calculation of the root-mean-square deviation: 23
23. Вычисление среднего квадратичного отклонения S2 is 3 times more risky than S1 24

Слайд 1Decision environment
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Knowledge degree of a manager

Слайд 23
How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?
Search for options

with the maximum benefit or minimum costs is called the optimization analysis

3 optimization methods:
marginal analysis
linear programming
Incremental profit analysis

Слайд 34
How managers can make a decision in risk – and uncertainty

environment?

Слайд 4Unlike short-term decisions, long-term decisions are made under risk and uncertainty
I

don't know what events will occur and how they will affect the implementation of the desired result

Слайд 5
Solutions matrix
I wonder, what is it?
Payment matrix

In conditions of risk

and uncertainty typical decision task is quite difficult, because there are many possible outcomes

Necessary systematization

Слайд 6This tool:
Formalizes the process of decision-making
Provides a summary of return for

different purposes and state of environment

Alternative strategies

Return: Profit, production volume

The state of the economy: growth, stability, recession, depression

Слайд 7Decision-making in terms of risk

Слайд 8Methods of risk evaluation:
(Risk – probability of undesired occurense)
9

Слайд 92 approach to objective measurement of probability (degree of risk)
A priori

(deductive method)‏

Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏

Слайд 10 A priori
(deductive method)‏
No experiment and analysis of past experience
characteristics

of possible cases are known in advance

Ex:

Слайд 11Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏
past experience will continue in the

future

Watch the frequency of occurrence of the event

Understand the frequency distribution for the total number of observations

Predict the probability distribution

Слайд 12Frequency distribution can be converted into a probability distribution
13
If a certain

load factor appeared 20 times for 50 flights, we can say that the probability of this factor during the next flight 20/50 = 40

Слайд 13Determine and minimize the risks inherent to a particular project
One of

the methods: the calculation of the probability distribution of possible outcomes, then the calculation of expected value

Слайд 14Expected value
- Value of i outcome
- Probability of i outcome
The expected

value of the strategy is the weighted average cost, which uses the probability of return as weights

Слайд 15Manager choose strategy with the highest expected value
16

Слайд 16Expected value
E(S)‏
5,90
9,50
17,65
15,00
15,10
Optimum strategy

17

Слайд 17Suppose that expected value of alternatives strategies are equal
How can we

choose between S1 and S2?

Слайд 18New criteria – degree of risk
May be determined as deviation scope

of probable outcome from expected value

Слайд 19By intuition we feel that the further away from the average

value will be the actual outcome, the riskier the project will be

One way of calculating risk - calculation of swing (amplitude)

Слайд 20swing (amplitude)
- the difference between the extreme values of probable

outcomes

Swing for S1 – 10, for S2 – 40.

Слайд 21root-mean-square deviation
The higher root-mean-square deviation - the higher risk
22

Слайд 22Calculation of the root-mean-square deviation:
23

Слайд 23Вычисление среднего квадратичного отклонения
S2 is 3 times more risky than

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Decision environment презентация

Содержание

Слайд 1Decision environment
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Knowledge degree of a manager

Слайд 23
How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?
Search for options

Слайд 34
How managers can make a decision in risk – and uncertainty

Слайд 4Unlike short-term decisions, long-term decisions are made under risk and uncertainty
I

Слайд 5
Solutions matrix
I wonder, what is it?
Payment matrix

In conditions of risk

Слайд 6This tool:
Formalizes the process of decision-making
Provides a summary of return for

Слайд 7Decision-making in terms of risk

Слайд 8Methods of risk evaluation:
(Risk – probability of undesired occurense)
9

Слайд 92 approach to objective measurement of probability (degree of risk)
A priori

Слайд 10 A priori
(deductive method)‏
No experiment and analysis of past experience
characteristics

Слайд 11Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏
past experience will continue in the

Слайд 12Frequency distribution can be converted into a probability distribution
13
If a certain

Слайд 13Determine and minimize the risks inherent to a particular project
One of

Слайд 14Expected value
- Value of i outcome
- Probability of i outcome
The expected

Слайд 15Manager choose strategy with the highest expected value
16

Слайд 16Expected value
E(S)‏
5,90
9,50
17,65
15,00
15,10
Optimum strategy

17

Слайд 17Suppose that expected value of alternatives strategies are equal
How can we

Слайд 18New criteria – degree of risk
May be determined as deviation scope

Слайд 19By intuition we feel that the further away from the average

Слайд 20swing (amplitude)
- the difference between the extreme values of probable

Слайд 21root-mean-square deviation
The higher root-mean-square deviation - the higher risk
22

Слайд 22Calculation of the root-mean-square deviation:
23

Слайд 23Вычисление среднего квадратичного отклонения
S2 is 3 times more risky than

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Decision environment презентация

Содержание

Слайд 1Decision environment Certainty Risk UncertaintyKnowledge degree of a manager

Слайд 23How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?Search for options

Слайд 34How managers can make a decision in risk – and uncertainty

Слайд 4Unlike short-term decisions, long-term decisions are made under risk and uncertaintyI

Слайд 5 Solutions matrixI wonder, what is it?Payment matrixIn conditions of risk

Слайд 6This tool:Formalizes the process of decision-makingProvides a summary of return for

Слайд 7Decision-making in terms of risk

Слайд 8Methods of risk evaluation:(Risk – probability of undesired occurense) 9

Слайд 92 approach to objective measurement of probability (degree of risk)A priori

Слайд 10 A priori (deductive method)‏No experiment and analysis of past experiencecharacteristics

Слайд 11Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏past experience will continue in the

Слайд 12Frequency distribution can be converted into a probability distribution13If a certain

Слайд 13Determine and minimize the risks inherent to a particular projectOne of

Слайд 14Expected value- Value of i outcome- Probability of i outcomeThe expected

Слайд 15Manager choose strategy with the highest expected value16

Слайд 16Expected valueE(S)‏5,909,5017,6515,0015,10Optimum strategy17

Слайд 17Suppose that expected value of alternatives strategies are equalHow can we

Слайд 18New criteria – degree of riskMay be determined as deviation scope

Слайд 19By intuition we feel that the further away from the average

Слайд 20swing (amplitude) - the difference between the extreme values of probable

Слайд 21root-mean-square deviationThe higher root-mean-square deviation - the higher risk22

Слайд 22Calculation of the root-mean-square deviation:23

Слайд 23Вычисление среднего квадратичного отклонения S2 is 3 times more risky than

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Обратная связь

Что такое ThePresentation.ru?

Слайд 1Decision environment
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Knowledge degree of a manager

Слайд 23
How managers can make a decision in certainty environment?
Search for options

Слайд 34
How managers can make a decision in risk – and uncertainty

Слайд 4Unlike short-term decisions, long-term decisions are made under risk and uncertainty
I

Слайд 5
Solutions matrix
I wonder, what is it?
Payment matrix

In conditions of risk

Слайд 6This tool:
Formalizes the process of decision-making
Provides a summary of return for

Слайд 8Methods of risk evaluation:
(Risk – probability of undesired occurense)
9

Слайд 92 approach to objective measurement of probability (degree of risk)
A priori

Слайд 10 A priori
(deductive method)‏
No experiment and analysis of past experience
characteristics

Слайд 11Aposteriori (statistical analysis of empirical data)‏
past experience will continue in the

Слайд 12Frequency distribution can be converted into a probability distribution
13
If a certain

Слайд 13Determine and minimize the risks inherent to a particular project
One of

Слайд 14Expected value
- Value of i outcome
- Probability of i outcome
The expected

Слайд 15Manager choose strategy with the highest expected value
16

Слайд 16Expected value
E(S)‏
5,90
9,50
17,65
15,00
15,10
Optimum strategy

17

Слайд 17Suppose that expected value of alternatives strategies are equal
How can we

Слайд 18New criteria – degree of risk
May be determined as deviation scope

Слайд 20swing (amplitude)
- the difference between the extreme values of probable

Слайд 21root-mean-square deviation
The higher root-mean-square deviation - the higher risk
22

Слайд 22Calculation of the root-mean-square deviation:
23

Слайд 23Вычисление среднего квадратичного отклонения
S2 is 3 times more risky than