Stewart C. Myers
Slides by
Matthew Will
Chapter 10
McGraw Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved
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Principles of Corporate Finance презентация
Содержание
- 1. Principles of Corporate Finance
- 2. Topics Covered Sensitivity Analysis Break Even Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Decision Trees
- 3. How To Handle Uncertainty Sensitivity
- 4. Sensitivity Analysis Example Given the
- 5. Sensitivity Analysis Example - continued NPV= 3.43 billion Yen
- 6. Sensitivity Analysis Example - continued Possible Outcomes
- 7. Sensitivity Analysis Example - continued
- 8. Sensitivity Analysis Example - continued NPV Possibilities (Billions Yen)
- 9. Break Even Analysis Point at which the
- 10. Monte Carlo Simulation Step 1: Modeling the
- 11. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 12. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 13. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 14. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 15. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 16. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 17. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
- 18. Decision Trees 960 (.8) 220(.2) 930(.4) 140(.6)
Topics Covered Sensitivity Analysis Break Even Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation Decision Trees
Слайд 1
A Project Is Not a Black Box
Principles of Corporate Finance
Seventh Edition
Richard
A. Brealey
Stewart C. Myers
Stewart C. Myers
Слайд 3
How To Handle Uncertainty
Sensitivity Analysis - Analysis of the effects of
changes in sales, costs, etc. on a project.
Scenario Analysis - Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions.
Simulation Analysis - Estimation of the probabilities of different possible outcomes.
Break Even Analysis - Analysis of the level of sales (or other variable) at which the company breaks even.
Scenario Analysis - Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions.
Simulation Analysis - Estimation of the probabilities of different possible outcomes.
Break Even Analysis - Analysis of the level of sales (or other variable) at which the company breaks even.
Слайд 4
Sensitivity Analysis
Example
Given the expected cash flow forecasts for Otobai Company’s Motor
Scooter project, listed on the next slide, determine the NPV of the project given changes in the cash flow components using a 10% cost of capital. Assume that all variables remain constant, except the one you are changing.
Слайд 7
Sensitivity Analysis
Example - continued
NPV Calculations for Optimistic Market Size Scenario
NPV= +5.7
bil yen
Слайд 9Break Even Analysis
Point at which the NPV=0 is the break even
point
Otobai Motors has a breakeven point of 85,000 units sold.
Otobai Motors has a breakeven point of 85,000 units sold.
Sales, 000’s
PV (Yen)
Billions
400
200
19.6
85 200
Break even
NPV=0
PV Inflows
PV Outflows
Слайд 10Monte Carlo Simulation
Step 1: Modeling the Project
Step 2: Specifying Probabilities
Step 3:
Simulate the Cash Flows
Modeling Process
Слайд 11Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 12Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812
456
660
364
148
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 13Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
+150(.6)
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
+50(.4)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812
456
660
364
148
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 14Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812
456
660
364
148
+150(.6)
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
+50(.4)
*450
331
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 15Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
-150
0
or
812
456
660
364
148
+150(.6)
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
+50(.4)
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
*450
331
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 16Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812
456
660
364
148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
403.82
+50(.4)
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
-550
NPV= ?
-250
NPV= ?
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 17Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812
456
660
364
148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
403.82
+50(.4)
-550
NPV=96.12
-250
NPV=117.00
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
Turboprop
Piston
Слайд 18Decision Trees
960 (.8)
220(.2)
930(.4)
140(.6)
800(.8)
100(.2)
410(.8)
180(.2)
220(.4)
100(.6)
812
456
660
364
148
+150(.6)
710.73
+30(.4)
+100(.6)
403.82
+50(.4)
-550
NPV=96.12
-250
NPV=117.00
-150
0
*450
331
or
NPV=444.55
NPV=888.18
NPV=550.00
NPV=184.55
Turboprop
Piston
