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Decision tree. Risk planning and value презентация
Содержание
- 1. Decision tree. Risk planning and value
- 2. A decision tree is a graphical method
- 3. Building the decision tree begins with the
- 5. 4 Because of every decision depends on
- 6. The decision tree analysis
- 7. Risk planning and price of risk
- 8. For the risk it is characteristic that
- 9. In-house risk Concerns possible losses that firms
- 10. If the number of accidents within the
- 11. Determination of the possibility of such damages
- 12. Therefore, banks regularly write off bad loans,
- 13. Occurs if the number of observations within
- 14. When considering a lot of firms, the
- 15. Examples of such risks are fire,
- 16. floods,
- 17. storms and other natural disasters
- 18. The burden of forecasting passed on insurance
- 19. The likelihood of loss cannot be set
- 20. Insurance company predicts cumulative risk of all
- 21. Insurance premium becomes part of the cost structure of the insured company
- 22. The insurance company must decide what premium
- 23. The manager, trying to avoid risk, should
- 24. Функция полезности Ех:
A decision tree is a graphical method that shows the sequence of strategic decisions and proposed sequence in every possible unit of circumstances 2
Слайд 2A decision tree is a graphical method that shows the sequence
of strategic decisions and proposed sequence in every possible unit of circumstances
2
Слайд 3Building the decision tree begins with the earliest decisions and moves
forward in time through the successive events and decisions
3
Слайд 54
Because of every decision depends on the assessment of the events
that will occur later, the tree decision analysis begins at the end of the sequence and moves back
Слайд 6
The decision tree analysis
5
Starting from the top right part of the
figure the firms analyst calculates the expected value, if the price is high and if there is competition
Слайд 8For the risk it is characteristic that the probability of outcomes
can be evaluated statistically
Potential profit and loss can be included in the cost structure of the firm
9
Слайд 9In-house risk
Concerns possible losses that firms prefer to include in the
cost structure in advance instead of buying insurance against such losses
10
Слайд 10If the number of accidents within the firm is large enough
so that they can be predicted,
the management may determine the probability of loss and add it to the other costs
Ех:
If the average estimated losses of the company can be predicted for the current period, then they can be insured in the company, regarding them as the cost of doing business
11
Слайд 11Determination of the possibility of such damages can be part of
the planning of the company under condition of allocation of reserve in case of damage or unforeseen circumstances
Слайд 12Therefore, banks regularly write off bad loans, and the usual practice
in accounting is unpaid invoices for any business that has a receivables
Слайд 13Occurs if the number of observations within one company is not
large enough so that the management can predict the damages with reasonable accuracy
Intercompany risk
Слайд 14When considering a lot of firms, the number of observations becomes
large enough to be able to demonstrate the necessary stability of predictions
Слайд 18The burden of forecasting passed on insurance companies
The insurance companies have
large base of certain cases
Since the heads of companies are not able to predict such damage to their firms
Слайд 19The likelihood of loss cannot be set for a particular firm,
but the likelihood of loss, covering many businesses can be predicted with a minimum error
Р
Слайд 20Insurance company predicts cumulative risk of all firms that she secures
and distributes the total cost of the anticipated losses by charging each firm fee, called a premium
Слайд 22The insurance company must decide what premium to charge based on
estimated losses + administrative costs and profit
Слайд 23The manager, trying to avoid risk, should decide whether to buy
or not to buy insurance, based on the estimated cost of operations of the company and its utility functions
