Limited GDP benefits of Basel III презентация

Summary In this comment were estimated the net benefits of Basel III implementation for a diverse sample of developing economies: Brazil, Mexico; China, India; Nigeria, South Africa;

Слайд 1Limited GDP benefits of Basel III expected for developing economies

Moody’s Investors Service


Reviewed by Porso Olimpur


Слайд 2
Summary
In this comment were estimated the net benefits of Basel III

implementation for a diverse sample of developing economies:
Brazil, Mexico;
China, India;
Nigeria, South Africa;
Russia, Ukraine.

The main aim of the study is to examine the long-term effect on GDP growth.


Слайд 3
Basel III – A Quick Primer
The goal of the proposed Basel

III reforms is to strengthen both microprudential regulations (by increasing the stability of individual banking institutions)
and macroprudential regulations (by reducing systemic risks).

Слайд 4
Methodology Overview
The methodology considers the long-term effects on GDP because:
there are

data constraints in calculating the short-term costs;
national regulations are still not in line with Basel III requirements;
bank data on risk-weighted assets and liquidity ratios are under Basel II calculations;

Costs of Basel III
how higher capital ratios affects bank lending spreads;
translating the increase in bank lending spreads into an impact on GDP.

Benefits of Basel III
more stringent regulations reduce the probability and severity of future financial crises


Слайд 5
Minor Benefit for a Majority of Countries
the higher the existing capital

levels, the smaller the net benefits from increased capital.

Слайд 6
Impact of Raising Equity on Banks' Lending Spreads
these results lead to

two observations:
the increases in lending spreads are mostly similar for countries in a given region, except Latin America;
the highest calculated lending spread increases are in Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Слайд 7
Costs of Basel III on GDP (other components)
Increase in Firms’ Cost

of Capital (in basis points)

Elasticity Factor


Слайд 8
Basel III Costs (as a % of GDP)
the combination of previous

factors yields the different costs of Basel III implementation;
UK were added as a benchmark.

Слайд 9
GDP Loss from a Crisis
the cumulative GDP loss from a financial

crisis in each specific country

Слайд 10
Financial development assessment
Credit Share in GDP
Investment share in GDP


Слайд 11
Benefits of Basel III
Basel III Benefits (in GDP %)
Basel III Net

Benefits (in GDP %)

Слайд 12Thank you
for your attention !
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