Forecasting techniques. Barometric methods презентация

present events

Statistical indicators are used - selected time series, which serve as barometers of economic change

Forecasting techniques

phase with the economy as a whole, which is the measure of economic activity
(the number of people employed in industries, production and trade)

Anticipatory indicators reflect the future trend change in the overall economy
(the change in the cost of materials, the index of stock prices, the quantity of money in circulation, contracts or commercial agreements)

Lagging indicators - indicators, lagging behind economic development
(The price of labor, the average Bank rate, commercial and industrial loans)

Barometric methods

Forecasting techniques

direction of changes, but nothing is said about the significance

Their use is very limited…..

There are two improved statistical indicators, which are often used in forecasting:

the percentage of anticipatory indicators, which grow in a certain time

Aids of comprehensive study and analysis of economic phenomena

Barometric methods

Forecasting techniques

orders;
applications for unemployment benefits;
indicators of money supply M;
the average working week;
a building permit;
the prices of the main stocks;
orders for durable goods;
the consumer confidence index.

The index of leading indicators characterizes the development of the economy in the next six months. As a rule, the output values of the index in the negative area for three consecutive months is an indicator of a slowing economy of the country.

Compound indexes:
Are the weighted average of several individual anticipatory indicators

certain time

ЕХ: if there are 10 leading indicators and seven of them increase at the present time, the diffusion index will be 7/10 or 70%

If the diffusion index is > 50%, then economic recovery is expected , if < 50%, then - economic downturn

expectations and intentions regarding future economic activity

Forecasting techniques

of production and industrial equipment
financial and purchasing plans of consumers reviews
Reviews of the leaders plans about inventory

EX: the Index of business activity
The consumer sentiment index

Collection of opinions and reviews of goals

Forecasting techniques