Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture презентация

Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy)

Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands

Industrial processes

Waste

Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year

Non-Ag Energy

70

11

4

2

Gt CO2e per year

Non-agricultural emissions

Agricultural and land-use change emissions

>70%

48

85

21

Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas

Increase cover of trees and perennials

Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds

Create diversity of land uses

Harvest floods & manage groundwater

Address coastal salinity &
sea surges

Protect against large-scale erosion

Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon

2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion

Increased yields

Altering cropping patterns & planting dates

Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing

Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro-harvesting)

Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases

Agroforestry, intercropping & on-farm biodiversity

Reduces need to use more land

Resilience to drought

Yields up to 35% more grain

5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established

Reduces drought impacts

Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year

Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at different ages

Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of water points

Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds

Improved pasture management

Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens

45% higher stocking density
no increase in pasture area
better pasture quality
40% reduction in emissions
agriculture decoupled from deforestation

Greater energy efficiency in harvesting

Rehabilitation of mangroves & breeding grounds

Less dependence of aquaculture on marine fish feed

Reducing losses and wastage

Less energy-intensity in fertilizer production

Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports)

Changing diets

Greater attention to food safety

Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer wastage

Early warning systems & weather forecasts

Mobile phone, radio & other extension or information for farmers

Research that links farmers & science

Weather insurance & micro-finance

Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for climate shocks

Weather-based insurance

Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation

Reduces risks

Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed

1 billion more People by 2030

1.4 billion living in Poverty

14% more Food needed per decade

Nearly 1 billion going Hungry

DC Targets (2035)
22% reduction in agricultural emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline
46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends

Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity

So what are the targets?

Global Harvest Initiative 2013
FAOSTAT
World Bank/Standard Chartered
GSMA/Deloitte

Sub-Saharan Africa

CSA Roll Out

Key

Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and worldviews

Working with partners to understand what works

Working with partners to make it happen

Enhanced local adaptation planning processes

Policy & Institutional Change

Flagship 1: Climate –smart agricultural practices

-22%

-28%

6.0

4.7

6.4

4.6

Hilly mid-slopes

Delta low-lying

Summer-Autumn

Winter-Spring

Sander et al. in press IRRI

AWD

Conventional

Increased income
Enhanced food security

PRODUCTIVITY

Higher incomes for farmers
Healthier animals
Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure

RESILIENCE

Emission Reduction Potential:
- 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO)
- 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050

FOOTPRINT

-30%

Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr)

Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway:
3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr

-30%

Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management
Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency.

Livestock: Higher productivity ⇒ Lower Emission Intensity

Based on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, Extrapolations

BAU

With CSA

2C Pathway

Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk)

Milk Production per Cow

Example Dairy:
Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity.

Analysis based on WRI 2013

Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha
140+ Million People below $1.25 per day

PRODUCTIVITY

Higher incomes for farmers
Healthier animals
Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure

RESILIENCE

Emission Reduction Potential:
- 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO)
- 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050

FOOTPRINT

-30%

Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr)

Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway:
3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr

-30%

Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management
Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency.

Livestock: Higher productivity ⇒ Lower Emission Intensity

Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009 Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013

BAU

With CSA

2C Pathway

Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk)

Milk Production per Cow

Example Dairy:
Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity.

Approximation of area suitable for Agroforestry and Water Harvesting in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha

PRODUCTIVITY

Multiple benefits include:
Reduced soil erosion
Additional diversified income from wood products
Strengthened draught resistance from increased water storage

RESILIENCE

FOOTPRINT

+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people
Average yield increase 50%
Savings of over 6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizer

Adoption on
150 Million Ha

Adoption on 300 Million Ha

+44 Million Tons

+88 Million Tons

Food Production

Carbon Sequestration

- 1 Gt of CO2e per year

- 2 Gt of CO2e per year

Adoption on
150 Million Ha

Adoption on 300 Million Ha

2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions
Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems

Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.

kg N / ha

g N / t

? > US$ 1.5 billion saved

Emissions ↓ by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1
(20-41% of economic potential for N management)

If nitrogen use efficiency could be improved by 5 % points

Separate, but related:
CSA Science Conference March 2015 France

Pilots will be conducted starting mid-2014 in Mali, Viet Nam, and Colombia

Adapted technologies
+
Climate-specific management
+
Seasonal agroclimatic forecasts
+
Efficient resource use
+
Enabling environment NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

In summary….