Retail Cities Asia Pacific The Dynamic Food and Beverage Scene презентация

FAST
FACTS

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

ROBUST RETAILER DEMAND AND STRONG CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
• Improving consumer demand and increased inbound tourism
have boosted retailer confidence. Retail sales in the Auckland
region continue to trend upward with 5.9% y-o-y growth in June
2015. Demand for prime retail space remains strong as seen
with the recent arrival of several international fashion brands
including Prada, Dior and Topman/Topshop who have secured
space along Queen Street.

PRIME CBD RENTS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPWARD
TREND
• Prime rents continue to rise at a steady pace. Rents for Prime
quality space in the CBD increased 9.9% y-o-y to NZD 2,225 psm
per annum, the result of increasing demand for quality central
space from premium retailers.

SMALL INCREASES TO A TIGHT STOCK BASE
• The retail stock base in the CBD expanded over the first half of
2015, driven mainly by the release of some newly refurbished
supply. No new developments have come on-line in 2015, which
is typical for the CBD due to limited available space.

OUTLOOK: EYES ARE ON THE PRIME
• Retail is set to show strong growth in the next few years, with
particular momentum in the prime sector. International brands
continue to express a strong interest in opening new stores,
with both H&M and Zara set to enter the market in 2016.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

MALL RENOVATIONS IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS
• Demand for prime retail space remained strong, and only
a handful of shopping centres performed poorly in 2Q15.
International brands continued to show a strong interest in
opening new stores, with 41 high-profile retailers opening
at EmQuartier, and six brand retailers opening at the newly
renovated The Emporium.

RENTS RISE AMID STRONG INTERNATIONAL LEASING
DEMAND
• As international retailers expanded their presence in Bangkok
and domestic demand remained robust, average prime rents
increased by 1.7% q-o-q, to THB 2,418 per sqm per month.
Capital values rose slightly less than rents, at 1.6% q-o-q,
causing market yields to expand marginally.

SIAM DISCOVERY CLOSES FOR RENOVATION
• Siam Discovery closed for renovation, resulting in the
temporary withdrawal of 26,500 sqm of leaseable space. The
pre-commitment rate at recently opened centres was high, but
the prime vacancy rate increased to 6.3% due to the ongoing
renovation of Central Plaza Pinklao and a handful of poorperforming
malls.

OUTLOOK: PRIME NEW SUPPLY WITH HIGH PRECOMMITMENTS
• Three prime projects, Central Plaza Westgate, Central Festival
East Ville and Zpell, plus three centres under refurbishment
should be completed by 1Q16, adding 305,000 sqm of retail
space. Vacancy rates may fluctuate, but strong leasing activity
plus high pre-commitment rates in the new and refurbished
malls should push rents and capital values higher. Market yields
should remain fairly stable.

MID-MARKET FASHION AND F&B DRIVE DEMAND
• Net absorption turned negative as new and centrally located
malls struggled for tenants. Recent completions in prime
locations also experienced slow leasing. Mid-market fashion,
F&B and the kids’ sector drove demand. Cath Kidston opened
at Taikoo Li South, and Macy’s department store launched a
discount project. Casual dining remained popular, with several
small brands expanding.

RENTAL GROWTH SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY
• Rental declines at underperforming malls offset rental gains at
strong properties, meaning Urban rents grew by just 0.3% q-o-q.
Core rents fared slightly better, at 0.7% q-o-q. No en bloc deals
were confirmed, although rumours persist about the potential
sale of a mall in decentralised Beijing to a domestic investor.

SUPPLY BOOM INCLUDES THREE LARGE SUBURBAN
MALLS
• Fun Mix opened with an 80% occupancy rate and Badaling
Premier Outlet launched with a 70% occupancy rate. The
vast Chengxiang Century Plaza department store also opened
in South Beijing. Under pressure from weak projects, urban
vacancy rose slightly to 8.1%, while core vacancy growth was
flat.

OUTLOOK: SLOWER RENTAL INCREASES PLUS GROWTH IN
SUBURBAN SUPPLY
• Softening retail sales, fierce competition and new supply should
restrict rental growth. Landlords at the top malls may still raise
rents, widening the divide between strong and weak properties.
More than half a million sqm of retail stock is still slated for 2015,
with nearly half being in the suburban market. Indeed, planned
Suburban malls will outnumber new Urban and Core centres
over the next four years.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

RETAILER EXITS AND STORE CLOSURES OVERSHADOW
LEASING ACTIVITY
• Global and domestic retailers are waiting for space in premium
malls, which is restricting leasing activity. Prime South, where
Gap recently debuted in India, remains the submarket of choice
for big brands and it enjoyed positive net absorption in 2Q15.
Prime Others and Suburbs saw more retailer exits and store
closures.

RENTS AND CAPITAL VALUES RISE MARGINALLY
• Strong performing malls in Prime Others recorded an increase
in rents after three quarters of holding stable, but retailers
continued to enjoy the upper hand in negotiations. A lack of
quality assets for sale continues to restrict investment activity.

NO NEW COMPLETIONS
• Except for select under-construction projects, most shopping
centre developments are struggling with weak retailer interest
and construction delays. Vacancy rose slightly to 24.5%, q-o-q,
with Prime Others recording the highest increase.

OUTLOOK: HIGH-QUALITY SUPPLY WITH HEALTHY PRECOMMITMENTS
• High-quality upcoming projects count healthy pre-commitments
and should improve absorption volumes. Increased expansion
activity by hypermarkets, multiplexes, F&B outlets and global
retailers is projected, but bricks-and-mortar retailers must
consider strengthening competition from online retailers when
planning growth strategies.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

MODEST RISE IN LEASING DEMAND
• Leasing demand picked up, with overall net absorption almost
double the 1Q15 level. F&B and fast fashion retailers drove
demand, and mid-range Chinese restaurants featuring themed
elements also expanded relatively fast. Luxury retailers remain
cautious about expansion, but international mass market
retailers were active, with Muji, Decathlon and Juicy Couture
each committing to a new store in the city.

RENTS IN EMERGING PRECINCTS TREND UP BUT CAPITAL
VALUES REMAIN STABLE
• Overall rents edged up by 0.5% q-o-q, to RMB 363.9 per sqm per month. Improved retail sentiment influenced a rental increase
in emerging areas, but vacancy pressures and/or poor sales
softened the stance of landlords in core locations. Capital
values remained stable and no en bloc sales transactions were
recorded.

OVERALL VACANCY DIPS TO AN HISTORIC LOW
• Guangzhou did not welcome any new retails space, and total
prime shopping centre stock remained at 1.2 million sqm. A
dearth of new supply and slight improvement in leasing demand
pushed overall vacancy down to an historic low of 2.3%.

OUTLOOK: DEMAND LIKELY TO RISE AMID A SUPPLY BOOM
• Cautious retailers will focus new store openings on better
quality malls. A high projected volume of new supply should
release some pent-up demand, and malls scheduled for
completion in 2H15 are recording healthy pre-commitment rates.
Supply pressures will limit rental growth. Investment sentiment
is expected to remain stable, with buyers displaying continued
caution.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

RETAIL SALES IMPACTED BY SLOWDOWN IN INBOUND
TOURISM
• Visitor arrivals growth slowed significantly, affected by protests
against Mainland shoppers and measures to curb parallel
trading. Coupled with the changing shopping habits of Chinese
visitors, retail sales fell by 0.4% y-o-y. Declining profitability
moderated demand for space from luxury retailers, and bigticket
item retailers scaling back their footprints compelled
landlords to lower rents.

DETERIORATING MARKET CONDITIONS WEIGH ON RENTS
• High street rents slid 4.9% q-o-q as retailers preferred shopping
centre locations, which offer more favourable rental and
marketing packages. Prime shopping centre rents edged up by
0.3% q-o-q. With street shop rents falling and investors reluctant
to chase yields lower, vendors lowered their capital value
expectations.

SHORT-TERM SUPPLY REMAINS LIMITED
• Phase one of Harbour North, Sun Hung Kai’s (SKP) retail project
in North Point, will be completed in 2017, with the larger phase
two slated for 2018. SKP’s three shopping centres in Yuen Long
will be rebranded as the Yoho Mall. Yoho Midtown and Sun Yuen
Long Centre are expected to open in 3Q15, with Grand Yoho
slated for 2016.

OUTLOOK: HIGH STREET RENTAL CORRECTION TO GATHER
MOMENTUM
• China’s anti-corruption campaign and the changing shopping
profile of Chinese visitors are weighing on the retail sector.
We forecast a 20-25% reduction in high street rents in 2015,
although prime shopping centre rents should hold firm as
demand outpaces supply. Robust local consumption is attracting
investors to strong properties in growth areas, but investment
activity will remain slow in core locations.

F&B AND FASHION RETAILERS SEEK EXPANSION SPACE
• Most malls continued to experience low single-digit vacancy,
with some claiming waiting lists. Net absorption remained
negative for the second consecutive quarter. Notable leases
included Hysteric Glamour at Lippo Mall Kemang, Shirokuma
at Kota Kasablanka, Gandaria City and Grand Indonesia, and
Antony Morat, Harman Kardon and Prada at Pacific Place.

RENTAL GROWTH DRIVEN BY EXCHANGE RATE INCREASES
• Although rental leases are usually quoted in rupiah, landlords
link rents to fixed USD/IDR exchange rates. Rents in USD terms
remained largely flat, but some landlords bumped up their
exchange rates so net effective rents in rupiah terms rose 2.5%
q-o-q. En bloc asset sales have been non-existent in recent
years, but strong interest in the Jakarta retail market means a
sale is possible in the coming quarters.

LOW VACANCY INFLUENCED BY LACK OF NEW SUPPLY
• A governmental construction moratorium has restricted supply
growth in Jakarta’s CBD in recent years, enabling landlords
to keep vacancy rates at manageable levels. Vacancy rose
marginally, but remained in low single digits at 4.2%. The stop
on stand-alone shopping mall development remains, and most
prime-retail landlords are unlikely to face near-term vacancy
pressures.

OUTLOOK: ONE NEW COMPLETION EXPECTED BY YEAREND
• The St. Moritz phase two should open in 3Q15, boosting prime
retail stock by around 80,000 sqm. Several tenants are fitting out
new stores, including Asics, Shaburi and Cole Haan in Grand
Indonesia, while Paul and Karen Millen are expected to expand
in Plaza Indonesia. Rents and capital values should edge up
steadily in the next 12 months.

LEASING DEMAND REMAINS MODERATE DESPITE
SPENDING REBOUND
• Retail turnover in Victoria continued to grow at an above-trend
pace, with spending increasing by 5.3% y-o-y in May 2015.
Household goods and cafes, restaurants and take-away food
services remained the key drivers of growth. The rebound in
retail turnover is expected to gradually improve leasing demand
in the short term.

ROBUST COMPETITION FOR RETAIL ASSETS
• Investment activity remains constrained by limited opportunities.
Transaction volumes of just AUD 417 million were recorded in
1H15, compared with AUD 2.1 billion in the 2014 calendar year.
Competition for assets and a low cost of debt are driving yields
lower as investors seek to grow their portfolios.

OCCUPANCY RATES REMAIN RESILIENT
• Primarily driven by a decrease in the CBD vacancy rate,
the average vacancy rate remained stable, while all other
Australian markets showed an increase in 1H15. Supply for
Melbourne in 2015 is expected to be 33% higher y-o-y, but is
likely to be below the long-term average. The pre-2017 supply
pipeline is evenly split across the retail sub-sectors.

OUTLOOK: RETAILERS BUOYED BY RETAIL SPENDING
RECOVERY
• Few assets available for sale means transaction activity is likely
to be lower in 2015 than 2014. Downward trending yields are
forecast to continue and spreads between retail sub-sectors
may narrow. Demand for retail space will be supply-led, with
redevelopments creating options for new and expanding
retailers. Prime centres should enjoy solid demand, but
challenges exist for secondary or non-core assets.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

DEMAND DRIVEN BY A DIVERSITY OF RETAILERS
• Suburbs continued to witness the bulk of leasing transactions,
owing to a growing affluent population and plentiful of space in
newly opened malls. A diverse spread of retailers undertaking
leases suggests demand is strengthening. Skipper Furnishings,
Soie and Rostaa all entered the Suburbs submarket, targeting a
burgeoning appetite for lifestyle products.

OVERALL RENTS RISE SLOWLY
• Prime South and Suburbs witnessed a marginal rise in rents,
driven by quality malls with limited available space. In the
investment market, a newly completed strata-titled mall in
the Suburbs quoted prices in the range of INR 22,000-25,000 per
sq ft.

ONE NEW MALL OPENS IN THE SUBURBS
• A single new shopping centre completed in the Suburbs,
commencing operations with around 20% of space committed.
Overall vacancy rose marginally to 21.0% at the end of 2Q15,
largely attributable to increased vacancy in Suburban malls.

OUTLOOK: NEW MALLS WILL ADD HIGH-QUALITY SUPPLY
• Peripheral metropolitan locations are attracting retailers and
developers due to improving residential catchment profiles and
new supply. Rents and capital values are likely to appreciate in
high-quality malls, while prominent high streets should continue
to garner plenty of retailer interest.

CONSUMER SPENDING REBOUNDS FROM MERS
OUTBREAK
• Retail spending has been boosted by a strong rebound in local
consumer confidence and inbound tourist arrivals following the
de facto end to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
outbreak in July.
• Occupier demand is being led by local retailers competing
aggressively to launch flagship health & beauty stores and to
diversify their F&B offering. Notable new openings included
Healing on the Mediheal, Bottega Verde, E.land Nature Kitchen
and CJ Season’s Table.

PRIME ASSETS TIGHTLY HELD
• There has been strong interest in the retail acquisitions from
both investors and owner-occupiers however deal volume has
been restricted by a lack of available stock.

LUXURY LEADS THE WAY
• Three new luxury brand flagship stores opened in Cheongdam,
the most luxury streets in Korea. Burberry opened a multi-level
store (GFA 3,974 sqm) in October, Dior commenced operations
for a new store (GFA 3,195 sqm) in June and La Perla launched
their largest flagship store (NFA 462 sqm) in Asia.

OUTLOOK: LOW INTEREST RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
RETAIL SALES
• Driven by the rebound in international tourist arrivals and record
low domestic interest rates, the outlook for the Seoul retail
market is healthy. Major new brands expected to enter the
market include Flying Tiger Copenhagen. Local conglomerates
are also set to benefit from the expansion of duty-free store
licenses.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

STRONG DEMAND FROM FAST FASHION AND KIDS
BRANDS
• Luxury retailers remained cautious about store openings,
although successful price adjustments by Chanel and Gucci
are influencing other brands to consider a similar strategy. Fast
fashion and child-related retailers led leasing activity. Forever 21
opened two stores and committed to a flagship on Huaihai Road,
while Disney unveiled its global flagship in Lujiazui and Legoland
will open in Putuo.

RENT LEVELS EDGE UP AS INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
INCREASES
• Core area ground floor rents increased by 1.9% q-o-q, to RMB
52.3 per sqm per day, while non-core rents rose 1.1%, to RMB
20.6 per sqm per day. Strong rental growth was observed in both
markets by successful malls undergoing tenant adjustment.
Ivanhoe Cambridge and APG invested USD 920 million in
Chongbang, a developer renowned for its lifestyle malls in
Shanghai.

FOUR NEW PROJECTS OPEN IN CENTRAL AREAS
• New World Daimaru Department Store, anchored by luxury
brands, and three mid-range malls – Crystal Galleria, Star Live
Plaza and Xinlin Station – opened with a total GFA of 366,000
sqm. Vacancy rose to 11.5% in the Core area, but decreased
to 7.5% in the non-core area, as several malls introduced
entertainment and experience-oriented tenants on the upper
floors.

OUTLOOK: INTENSE COMPETITION EXPECTED IN NONCORE
AREAS
• Ongoing caution by luxury retailers will contrast with stable
expansion by fast fashion and F&B brands, while landlords
increasingly covet child-related brands. More than 20 noncore
projects are slated to open by end-2016, and malls with
inexperienced landlords in saturated areas will have low
bargaining power. Rental growth will be bolstered by premium
brands expanding to mature malls in key submarkets.

HIGHLIGHTS

FAST FACTS

MATURE MALLS IN PRIME LOCATIONS ARE
OUTPERFORMING
• Retail sales increased y-o-y in April and May and this has
helped with retailers’ confidence. Despite the challenging
operating environment due to a restrictive foreign labour
policy and falling tourist arrivals, a substantial number of new
store openings occurred from a variety of retailer categories,
including F&B, fashion and beauty.

CAPITAL VALUES SOFTEN AMID CAUTIOUS INVESTOR
SENTIMENT
• Investment activity was tepid due to the lack of new strata retail
supply, softening capital values and weak economic growth.
Overall mall rents corrected further, albeit at a slower rate.
Despite strong occupier demand for established malls, small
shopping centres in non-prime locations witnessed weaker
demand and falling rents.

A LACK OF NEW COMPLETIONS KEEPS VACANCY TIGHT IN
PRIME LOCATIONS
• New supply remained limited with only a few small shopping
centre additions in the Primary and Suburban submarkets.
Take-up was relatively slow, as retailers appear cautious
about opening in new malls. Overall vacancy remained tight.
Substantial space closed for renovations in Tiong Bahru Plaza,
The Centrepoint, Holland Village Shopping Centre and Compass
Point. In secondary locations it is envisaged that vacancy rates
will rise.

OUTLOOK: LIMITED SUPPLY LIKELY TO UNDERPIN STABLE
OCCUPANCY LEVELS
• Several new openings are slated in the next 12 months in the
Marina and Suburban submarkets, but the lack of Core area
additions may keep occupancy levels stable. Recent interest
rate rises may affect consumer spending power while also
discouraging investments, and rents and capital values could
soften in the near term.

CORE AREA LEASING REMAINS STRONG
• Demand for super-prime retail space remained strong. Two new
leasing commitments, a Microsoft flagship store at Westfield
Sydney and a Mimco store at MidCity, both offer Pitt Street
mall frontage. Meanwhile, COS leased space for its second
Australian store at 5 Martin Place in the CBD.

INVESTMENT VOLUMES MORE THAN DOUBLE
• Approximately AUD 515 million of retail assets were transacted
in 2Q15 in New South Wales, up from AUD 253.7 million in 1Q15.
The largest was the sale of Pacific Square for AUD 137 million.
Yield compression was recorded sector-wide, notably in the
Neighbourhood and Bulky Goods sub-sectors.

SUPPLY ADDITIONS PICK UP
• In 1H15, 133,100 sqm of completions were recorded, compared
to 134,600 sqm in the 2014 calendar year. The AUD 475 million
redevelopment of Westfield Miranda completed with a 98% precommitment.
Despite strong leasing demand, the CBD vacancy
rate rose to 4.5%, up from 3.1% at the end of 2014.

OUTLOOK: INTERNATIONAL RETAILER EXPANSIONS TO
CONTINUE
• New mall completions are expected to peak in 2015, with
around 233,700 sqm of new supply anticipated by year-end.
Low to moderate rental growth is forecast in Sub-regional and
Neighbourhood centres, and further yield compression is likely
in the Regional, Sub-regional and Neighbourhood sub-sectors
over the next 12 months.

ROBUST RETAILER DEMAND AND STRONG CONSUMER
SENTIMENT
• Three consecutive quarters of consumption growth and
continued demand from inbound visitors boosted retail sales.
Department stores recorded strong duty-free goods sales,
and luxury brands and F&B operators sought new stores in
better locations. Notable new openings including Feiler’s
Ginza flagship, plus Stella McCartney, Sonia Rykiel and Versus
Versace stores in Aoyama.

RENTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS VACANCY TIGHTENS
• Rents averaged JPY 73,945 per tsubo per month, increasing 1.1%
q-o-q, and 8.2% y-o-y. Despite firm rental growth observed in
Ginza, the pace of growth moderated compared to 1Q15. Capital
values increased 7.6% q-o-q, and 28.7% y-o-y, despite slowing
rent growth as cap rates compressed amid growing investor
interest and limited availability of assets for sale.

THE SCARCITY OF AVAILABLE SPACE PERSISTS
• The Japanese capital did not welcome any new supply to the
market. Vacant space continued to be very limited amid strong
demand and no new completions.

OUTLOOK: CAP RATE COMPRESSION MAY PUSH UP
CAPITAL VALUES
• Retail market conditions are expected to remain healthy given
positive consumer sentiment and growth in visitor arrivals.
Upward pressure on rents is expected because of a tight
demand and supply balance. Should low interest rates persist,
cap rates may compress further and accelerate the growth of
capital values.