The effectiveness of international mediation efforts in water disputes: the case of rogun dam презентация

of Rogun Dam

Baktybek Altynay
Thesis Proposal Defense
Spring 2017

College of Social Sciences
Department of Political Sciences and International Relations

UN report (2009), 507 number of water conflicts were recorded over the past 50 years

No global framework agreement in force that regulates the use of shared water resources

International law offers no simple solution to the complexities of the use of the shared waters (Hodgson, 2010)

Ex: The Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace, Indus Water Treaty, Ganges Water Treaty

The contributions of mediators

Introduction

during part of the year and disrupt existing and sensitive hydrological processes.

Rogun has become an important symbol of Tajikistan’s independence and lynchpin of Rahmon’s plans for developing the national economy. 

Rogun’s energetic production could solve electricity shortages in Tajikistan And create new job opportunities, reducing poverty of the population.

Nations; Republic of Kazakhstan ; European Union(CAREC); Human Rights Watch;
The main approaches used by EU mediators: Process Initiation, National consultations, Regional meetings to generate joint approach and vision, Collaborative participation in large-scale international events.
In response to a request by the Government of Tajikistan, the World Bank supported two studies to evaluate the viability of the proposed Rogun Hydropower Project (HPP) according to international standards: Techno-Economic Assessment Study (TEAS) and Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA).
Five Information-Sharing and Consultation Meeting on the Assessment Studies of the Proposed Rogun Hydropower Project took place in Almaty ( May 2011- June 2014)

irrigation, drinking water supply and national policy programs. Suffice it to say that such projects have not been effective” (Hodgson, 2010).
The global powers preferred to keep the issues at a distance. They do not publicly take a position even if it is the best economical and technical issue (Central Eurasia Standard, 2013).
Technical assistance cannot solve the problem until the political will is lacking.

OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS AT MEDIATION (cont)

diplomatic side as well through capacity and skills enhancement of diplomats and foreign offices about water management and conflict resolution linkages (Salman, 2015).
Bekchanov (2013) recommended to develop trust among both upstream and downstream countries and to initiate interest of Uzbekistan regarding joint sharing of energy from Rogun (reaching win-win solution).
Valencia, (2012), Hodgson,(2010) identified factors such as political unrest, corruption, and inefficient bureaucracies aggravating the situation between the two countries.
According to (Jalilov and DeSutter, 2011) agreement between countries can be achieved if Uzbekistan implements reforms in the field of water use and adjusts the irrigation requirement, or Tajikistan will share with Uzbekistan income from electricity production
External forces are not interested in the fact that Tashkent and Dushanbe agreed on hydropower projects (Political Review,2017)
Lemon (2016) suggests that the death of Islam Karimov, who was a main opponent of the Rogun project, might led to achieve positive peace between the parties

transport links and easing of visa regulations

of international mediation efforts

to explore whether the mediators paved the way for resolving the dispute bilaterally

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the issue of Rogun dam?

What international efforts were undertaken to resolve the issue of Rogun Dam?
What were the main obstacles in finding compromise?
What factors contribute to the success of international efforts of this kind?

to practice

phenomenon through detailed contextual analysis of a limited number of events or conditions, and their relationships (Zaidah, 2007).

Indus Water Treaty

Water Diplomacy approaches

Bullet for Water Scarcity in Central Asia?” (Center for International Development and Environmental Research, Bonn University)
Central Eurasia Standard, (May, 2013) “The Rogun Dam: Regional Conflict and Opportunity”
Hodgson Steven(May 2010) “Strategic Water Resources in Central Asia: in search of a new international legal order” (EU-Central Asia monitoring)
Jalilov Shokhrukh-Mirzo & DeSutte Thomas M. r and Jay A. Leitch, September 2011. “Impact of Rogun dam on downstream Uzbekistan Agriculture” (International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Vol. 3(8), pp. 161-166)
Political Review (Politicheskoe obozrenie), February 2017. “Budet li novaya era v tajiksko-uzbekssikh otnosheniyah?” http://politobzor.net/show-122264-budet-li-novaya-era-v-tadzhiksko-uzbekskih-otnosheniyah.html
Salman Aneel, 2015. “Transboundary Water Governance from a Foreign Policy Lens” (Publication Series “Regional Green Dialogs”, Islamabad)
Shafiqul Islam & Repella Amanda C., (July, 2015). “Water Diplomacy: A Negotiated Approach to Manage Complex Water Problems” (Journal of Contemporary Water research & education issue 155, pages 1-10)
United Nations report on world water conflicts, 2009 chrome-extension://ecnphlgnajanjnkcmbpancdjoidceilk/content/web/viewer.html?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unwater.org%2Fdownloads%2Funw_annualreport2009.pdf
Zaidah Zainal, (9, Jun 2007). “Case study as a research method” (Faculty of Management and Human Resource Development, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)